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The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Sep 30 08 05:12 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD
Price: 1.0473
Bias: While 1.0409 supports I still see potential for 1.0513 and 1.0558
Daily Bullish
Finally we get a break above 1.0398-06 which generated the advised reaction to the 1.0471-86 area. This does seem more likely to see price recover even further. We need to see the 1.0409 level hold during this with a move above 1.0485 providing alift for 1.0513 initially and while this could cause a brief reaction I'd expect to see a final move then to the 1.0558 target resistance which I feel will cap for stronger losses. Only breach would maintain the upmove for 1.0620-50 and 1.0700-20.
Medium Term Bullish
30th September: While we are seeing a recovery I still view this as a correction that should stall around 1.0558. Thus a stronger bullish stance will need a clean break here to generate a return to 1.0819 again.
Daily Bearish
Yesterday's break higher does confirm a continued correction to the 1.0558 area before the downside develops once again. Only an earlier break below 1.0400 would undermine the recovery and risk losses back to 1.0333 and the 1.0297 low initially. Next support is at 1.0253 and 1.0225.
Medium Term Bearish
30th September: It certainly looks as if we shall see the warned of correction to 1.0558 which should provide a good selling area for a return to 1.0297 and eventually much lower. |
| Resistance |
| 1.0650-00 |
| 1.0600-20 |
| 1.0558 |
| 1.0529 |
| 1.0513 |
| 1.0485 |
| Support |
| 1.0445 |
| 1.0409 |
| 1.0380 |
| 1.0355 |
| 1.0333 |
| 1.0253-97 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish consolidation
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| RSI |
Overbought |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles still appear to show downward potential but with weekly cycles on the rise a correction higher can be expected and I'd estimate this will complete by the New Year. For now daily cycles are pointing lower into August from where we should see gains. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Higher |
Oversold |
| Weekly |
Higher |
Overbought |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Neutral |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
26th September:
Even the 1.0297 support was tested yesterday and held and could just be the end of Wave -a- lower. Breach would imply a minimum decline to 1.0267 if we are to see an expanded flat correction but more likely it will break for the 238.2% projection in Wave iii at 1.0203 and possibly the 261.8% projection at 1.0144. Only a move back above the 1.0360-98 peaks would resurrect the potential for a 50% retracement in Wave -b- at 1.0558.
30th September:
Yesterday's gains have been constructive and appear to be developing in a multiple ABC move that has reached 1.0485 thus far. While a 50% retracement in Wave x at 1.0409 supports this move higher should continue to the 50% retracement in Wave b at 1.0558 from where we can see Wave c resume losses in Wave iii lower.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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