|
The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF |
|
|
|
Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Jun 25 08 08:56 GMT |
|
The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF
Price: 1.0409
Bias: While 1.0419 caps I still feel there is room for additional losses down to 1.0240-78
Daily Bullish:
Loss of 1.0404-17 saw losses to the 1.0348 support from where there has been a modest pullback to the same break area at 1.0404-17. I suspect this will cap. Thus any bullish stance will require a break through this resistance area and if seen would generate a recovery to 1.0458 at least. Take a little care here in case a sideways trading range develops. Above 1.0460 would extend gains through to 1.0537 at least. Next resistance is not until 1.0608.
MT Bullish:
24th June: I was surprised by the move above 1.0433-73 but will take a cautious stance until 1.0492 is broken and even then I'd expect a pullback from 1.0534-61. Above there sees 1.0695.
Daily Bearish:
The breach of 1.0404 signaled losses which stalled at the first major support at 1.0348. Indeed, while 1.0419 caps there is still downside risk. A break below 1.0364 will assist a retest of 1.0348 and while it could cause a small pullback the major move should be lower to the 1.0303- 07 area which should cause a pullback. Next targets - which are expected to hold are at 1.0240- 78.
MT Bearish:
24th June: The whippy price action doesn't help but should yesterday's recovery to 1.0492 represent the top of an expanded flat correction then the chances for a move back to 1.0240-78 - below sees 1.0134-47 again. |
| Resistance |
| 1.0608-54 |
| 1.0537 |
| 1.0492 |
| 1.0458 |
| 1.0437 |
| 1.0419 |
| Support |
| 1.0364 |
| 1.0348 |
| 1.0328 |
| 1.0303 |
| 1.0240-78 |
| 1.0203 |
|
| 4-Hour Momentum |
| Trailing Stop |
Bullish consolidation |
|
| RSI |
Neutral |
|
| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles still appear to reflect long term losses. However, for now the weekly cycles have a window of strength through to year end although daily cycles suggest we may see sideways trending into the next low by around early September |
| Cycles and Momentum |
| |
Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Higher |
Neutral but rising |
| Weekly |
Higher |
Neutral but rising |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
25th June:
While yesterday's move lower does look more bearish the wave structure is so erratic we should be watching break levels closely. Overall, considering the Euro view, I feel the downside has more legs but this will require the 1.0419 resistance to cap and cause follow-through to 1.0307 in what would appear to be Wave a of a new ABC move lower that should eventually reach the 66.7%-76.4% retracement in Wave -b- between 1.0240-78. Any earlier rally above 1.0419 would destroy the bearish scenario and while further range trading is possible the suggestion will be that the 1.0492 high was Wave a of Wave i and yesterday's 1.0348 low was Wave ii which would imply a 138.2% projection to 1.0608 with an eventual wave equality target in Wave -c- at 1.0695.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
|
