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The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF |
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Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Sep 04 08 04:41 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF
Price: 1.1061
Bias: While 1.1040 supports I cautiously remain in favor for extension to 1.1237-75 which should cap
Daily Bullish
Gains were seen to just under the minimum target at 1.1175 from where we have seen a deep pullback. Indeed, this is pushing the bullish structure a bit. However, while 1.1040 remains intact I remain cautiously bullish for a return above 1.1085-90 which should maintain the upward momentum for 1.1140 (slight care here) and probably back to yesterday's 1.1170 high. While there could still be a shallower correction I will look for extension to the 1.1208-37 are at least and at most 1.1275.
Medium Term Bullish
2nd September: Lack of downside on Friday is making the upside look more inviting and this does seem to have potential for 1.1237 at least and possibly as high as 1.1363.
Daily Bearish
The pullback from 1.1170 has been very deep and concerns a little. However, I will only consider a more bearish outlook should the 1.1040 support break. If seen then it would tend to paint a more bearish picture for losses to 1.0963 and after a correction down to 1.0882 at least. Next support would be at the 1.0442 low.
Medium Term Bearish
2nd September: Contrary to my assumption over the end of last week the upside does not look over and now only a break below 1.0940 would imply a retest of 1.0842. Break there is then required to maintain more steady losses for 1.0688 |
| Resistance |
| 1.1275 |
| 1.1218-37 |
| 1.1170 |
| 1.1140 |
| 1.1121 |
| 1.1085-90 |
| Support |
| 1.1040 |
| 1.0997 |
| 1.0963 |
| 1.0936 |
| 1.0882 |
| 1.0842 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bullish trend
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| RSI |
High-neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Monthly cycles still appear to reflect long term losses. However, for now the weekly cycles have a window of strength through to year end. Daily cycles have turned higher earlier than expected but this does not seem to suggest we'll see a stright line higher. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Finding a high? |
Bearish divergence |
| Weekly |
Higher |
High-neutral |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
2nd September:
The failure on the downside on Friday and the strong recovery is causing me to consider another rally. I can’t say the wave structure from the 1.0010 low is particularly clear and thus I am concentrating more on the short term.
This would label the 1.1085 high as Wave a Wave v and the 1.0882 low as Wave b. From these we can derive potential targets at 1.1125 (equality) and 1.1275 (161.8%).
I also see a larger daily projection of the rally from 0.9644 to 1.0623 at 1.1363.
So for now I’ll concentrate on the short term which would count the 1.1046 high as Wave i and the 1.0948 low as Wave ii. This should then cause a move to the 176.4% projection in Wave iii at 1.1237 at least.
4th September:
While the 1.1040 (58.6% retracement in Wave iv (Wave iii appears to have stalled at 1.1170) then we can derive targets in Wave v at 1.1218 (61.8%) that matches a 138.2% projection in Wave c. Take care there – only above extends to the 161.8% projection in Wave c at 1.1275.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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