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The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY |
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Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Jul 02 08 03:05 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY
Price: 105.93
Bias: While the upside target is at 106.77 and max 107.10-20 there is risk of 105.40-106.20 ranging first
Daily Bullish
The first resistance at 106.40 capped yesterday and caused a deep pullback. The trading since then has been rather erratic and we should be aware of the risk of further sideways trading with a low at 105.40-43 before the upside can finally push through. A move now above 106.20 would press the 106.37 high and probably allow a move to 106.77 minimum. This should cause a pullback at least but at this stage I can't rule out a deeper move to 107.10-20 - but this should be the top.
Medium Term Bullish
30th June: Additional losses seen but a cycle low is not due for a while. Thus only an earlier break back above 107.80 would begin to suggest a return to 108.57-73 at least - possibly the higher 109.44 resistance.
Daily Bearish
The losses from the 106.37 high were very deep but did not threaten the 104.97 low and I tentatively feel this will hold for another day or so. Support is now at 105.40 and this should hold. Thus a more bearish stance should only be considered on a breach of 105.40 which should then pressure 105.22 and 104.97. Take care here as we may just see a flat correction. Breach would extend losses to the 104.30-40 area which should cause a pullback.
Medium Term Bearish
1st July: Daily cycles remain bearish for another 1-3 weeks and while the next few days could see a correction higher overall I feel there is room for losses to 104.30-40 minimum and possibly as far as 103.24. |
| Resistance |
| 108.42 |
| 107.49-70 |
| 107.10-20 |
| 106.77 |
| 106.40 |
| 106.20 |
| Support |
| 105.70 |
| 105.42 |
| 105.22 |
| 104.97 |
| 104.30-40 |
| 103.55 |
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| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish trend |
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| RSI |
Low-neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Daily & weekly cycles took a knock in October last year and while the long term outlook is still bearish into the end of next year, overall there are reasons to expect a recovery in the Dollar into Q4. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Finding a peak now |
Oversold |
| Weekly |
Higher |
Overbought |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold - needs correction |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
1st July:
Wave -iv- appears to have ended at 104.97 though was quite short. The spike reversal does support a correction now in Wave (b) and we need observe carefully to see in which pattern it will develop. Overall the 50% retracement in Wave (b) is at 106.77 and a 61.8% at 107.19.
2nd July:
I remain with a broad expectation of a recovery to the 50% retracement at 106.77 though the combination of the pivot resistance and Fibonacci retracement (& projection) at 107.10-20 makes this a stronger bet. We could see some further range trading first but then followed by a break higher. The only other pattern I could consider is an expanded flat which sees a 38.2% expansion at 104.44
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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