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The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY |
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Technical Archives |
Written by FX-Forecaster |
Nov 21 08 02:51 GMT |
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The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY
Price: 94.17
Bias: Support is at 93.10-37 and I suspect this area will hold for a reversal higher
Daily Bullish
Losses were stronger than expected but while I feel there is still potential to reach this area I feel it will hold to cause a reversal higher. Only an earlier break above the 94.69 area will imply an earlier break higher and then we should see gains push to 95.00-20 and probably closer to the 95.60 area. Around here a pullback is possible ahead of a second attempt at the 96.23 corrective high - possibly a little higher. Take care this could cause a reversal lower. Only above 96.30 would see a move into the 96.50-00 congestion area.
Medium Term Bullish
21st November: Watch the 93.10-15 area which, as long as it holds, forces a break back above 96.50 raises the chance of a stronger push higher and probably to the 98.26 corrective high and above.
Daily Bearish
The stronger losses broke through all supports to reach into the 93.15-80 congestion area and normally this type of area causes a pullback. While 94.69 caps there is still chance we shall see another dip lower with support around 93.10-37. I feel this will hold. However, also note the 92.80 support. Only below there will maintain losses for 92.27 which also holds the risk of a reversal higher. Next support is at 91.60 but nothing then until the 90.88 low and 90.00.
Medium Term Bearish
21st November: The break of 94.20-46 has extended losses but only below 92.80-93.15 will imply extension to 90.88 and probably 90.00. I feel this lower support stands a good chance of causing a reversal if seen. |
| Resistance |
| 96.50-00 |
| 95.93-23 |
| 95.60 |
| 95.00-20 |
| 94.69 |
| 94.35 |
| Support |
| 93.65 |
| 93.10-37 |
| 92.80 |
| 92.27 |
| 91.60 |
| 90.88 |
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ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
| 4-Hour Momentum |
Trailing Stop
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Bearish trend
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| RSI |
Low-neutral |
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| Long Term Cycles and Momentum |
| Daily & weekly cycles took a knock in October last year and while the long term outlook is still bearish into the end of next year. We should now being seeing gains into January-February.. |
| Cycles and Momentum |
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Cycles |
Momentum |
| Daily |
Higher |
Oversold |
| Weekly |
Lower |
Oversold |
| Monthly |
Lower |
Oversold |
21st November:
Well the losses were deep yesterday and below 94.46 which opens the way for a dip in a final Wave c. The way things progressed yesterday it seems as if the initial 1.6430 low was Wave a and the 96.23 high was Wave b. This provides a wave equality target at 93.15 while within Wave c I think that while 94.69 caps (a 50% retracement in minor Wave iv of Wave c) then we can see extension to the 93.10-15 area.
This also represents a 76.4% retracement of the 90.88 - 100.54 rally. If my count is right and we have seen a triple-three lower then it completes a full pullback in Wave (ii). Thus the first reversal should reach back to the prior Wave b at 96.23. I susepct this will form Wave i of Wave (a) of Wave (iii).
Thus, a break below 93.10 and 92.80 would threaten a move to the 138.2% projection in Wave c at least which rests at 92.27. Anywhere below there implies a retest at the 90.88 low and potentially the 38.2% expansion of the 95.71-110.65 rally which is at 90.00.
Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster
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The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.
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