US Dollar Under Pressure

The EURUSD triangle count is eliminated with the push through 1.5843. Still, a small second wave should unfold in the EURUSD next week and bring the pair back near 1.5700. Near term, 1.5900 is resistance.

EUR/USD

The EURUSD is expected to exceed 1.6018 and continue on to all-time highs in the next few weeks. We can eliminate the triangle count since the EURUSD exceeded 1.5843. This leaves us with 2 counts going forward. The preferred count treats the advance from 1.5283 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves (1 and 2 of V). The rally from 1.5303 is wav i of 3. While wave i of 3 may extend a bit more, expect a wave ii drop to begin soon and bring price back below 1.5720.

STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.5303 (short term traders should be bearish against 1.5837), target is above 1.6018

USD/JPY

We wrote yesterday that “the USDJPY decline from 108.57 could be the beginning of larger wave 3. However, it is not yet safe to enter from the short side. The rally from 104.99 is an impulse (5 waves) and the subsequent drop is a correction (zigzag). Price should then exceed 106.38 in the next day or so. We’ll look for a top and reversal near 107.11 (6/17 top and 61.8% of 108.41-104.99).” The USDJPY reversed at 106.75, near the 50% of 108.41-104.99. It is possible that the USDJPY will accelerate lower in a 3rd of a 3rd wave so a bearish bias is warranted against 106.75.

STRATEGY: Bearish, against 106.75, target TBD

GBP/USD

A C wave (of either a triangle or flat) is underway. If a triangle, wave C likely continues until 2.02 (March 27 top). If a flat, wave C will continue through 2.04. The pair has tested 2.00 today so expect a sizeable reaction (lower). 1.9800 should provide support.

STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9583, target 1 at 2.0175, target 2 TBD

USD/CHF

The USDCHF is probably on its way to a new low. The advance from .9647 is in 3 waves and therefore corrective. 3 wave movements are eventually completely retraced. A bearish bias is warranted against 1.0493. Near term, a push through 1.0227 is likely. Look for resistance near 1.0266

USD/CAD

This is a close up view of wave E of the triangle (which is larger wave B within an A-B-C from .9055). With the advance from 1.0047 taking an impulsive look, probability is high that the wave E low is in place. Look for support near 1.0150.

STRATEGY: Bullish, against .1.0047, target above 1.0324

AUD/USD

The rally from .9511 is an impulse, indicating that the AUDUSD trend remains up. A small correction should play out over the next few days. Look for support near .9581 and .9563. A bullish bias is warranted against .9511.

STRATEGY: Get bullish near .9570, against .9511, target above .9667

NZD/USD

Bigger picture, the NZDUSD is expected to advance to the 50% of .7921-.7445 at .7683 and perhaps even the 61.8%-78.6% at .7740-.7920. A rally to there would fill the 6/4 gap. The up-down sequence from .7445 is probably waves A and B. Wave C is considered underway as long as price is above .7530.

STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7530, target TBD

DailyFX

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