USDJPY: Pressured To The Downside Longer Term

While USDJPY bottomed out on a double bottom pattern formation in Jan'09 and rallied for three months to attain a high of 101.43 in April'09 triggering its medium term uptrend, its loss of upside momentum at the earlier mentioned high at 101.43 saw it maintaining a corrective pullback phase. This development continues to support its run off the 87.12 level and suggests that a continuation of that trend could be seen. However, the pair's overall longer term picture remains bearish despite the above price action with clear evidence seen on the monthly and weekly charts through its established declining channel in place for the past two years. The declining channel and pattern of lower highs and lower lows are clear demonstration of classical technical analysis definition of trends. As long as this continues to play out, its recent rally could fade and ultimately turn back down targeting 93.85 level, its May 22'09 low with a violation there paving the way for a run at the 87.12 level. This view remains consistent with its longer term downtrend. On the other hand, if USDJPY resumes its medium term uptrend by convincingly invalidating its 2009 high at 101.43 and follows through higher breaking through its LT declining channel top currently at the 103.05 level, then our longer term bearish outlook will annulled. Beyond the 103.05 should accelerate upside gains towards the 110.65 level, its Aug'08 high. Overall, unless the latter view plays out, USDJPY's longer term bearish structure remains in place.

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

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