Weekly Forex Technical Overview

Euro/dollar

Last week's range: 1.3705 - 1.4565 (Down)
Previous range: 1.4438 - 1.4865 (Up)

Euro/dollar collapsed to a 14-month low last week, falling every day of the week. My model turned short last Monday, and the bias remains downward.

Immediate support is at 1.3615. Below 1.3465, support is at 1.3350. Distant support is at 1.3250.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.3705. This is followed by 1.3845. The next level is 1.3935. Above 1.4200, resistance is still pegged at 1.4385. Distant resistance is at 1.4600.

NEAR-TERM:Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Last week's range: 103.54 - 106.96 (Down)
Previous range: 105.04 - 107.46 (Down)

Dollar/yen edged fell to a 4 ½-month low. My model is now short, but it vacillates. The medium-term outlook is mixed, after the pair failed to trigger a head-and-shoulders formation below 103.50.

Good support is at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. The next level is 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Last week's range: 1.7551 - 1.8366 (Down)
Previous range: 1.8264 - 1.8668 (Up)

Sterling/dollar fell to a three-week low and my model went short early last Monday. The downside remains favored in the medium term, but the recovery on Friday suggests an early bounce.

Immediate support is at 1.7600. Below 1.7550, strong support now comes at 1.7448 from a pivot low. Distant support comes at 1.7200.

Initial resistance is at 1.7840. Good resistance follows at 1.7950 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above the strong level at 1.8060, further resistance is at 1.8200. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.8668.

NEAR-TERM:Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM:Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Last week's range: 1.0818 - 1.1412 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0698 - 1.1060 (Down)

Dollar/Swiss rallied to a three-week high and my model went long last Tuesday. The risk remains on the upside, but a pause is due.

Good resistance is pegged at 1.1412. The next level is 1.1605 from a pivot high. This is followed by 1.1767. Distant resistance is at 1.1865.

Immediate support is at 1.1290. The next level is 1.1220. Below 1.1140, support is seen at 1.1055. Distant support comes 1.0800.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Canada

Last week's range: 1.0335 - 1.0843 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0299 - 1.0514 (Down)

Dollar/Canada exploded to an over 14-month high last week, and my model promptly went long early last Monday. The initial outlook is bullish, but a pause is due.

Initial resistance is at 1.0890. The next level is 1.1025. Above 1.1135, resistance follows at 1.1235.

Immediate support is at 1.0775. This is followed by 1.0635. Below 1.0570, distant support now comes at 1.0465.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Euro/yen

Last week's range: 144.04 - 155.33 (Down)
Previous range: 153.49 - 156.83 (Mixed)

Euro/yen collapsed to a 28-month low. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, and my model turned short early last Monday.

Immediate support is now seen at 143.60. Below 141.43, distant support is now at 140.30.

Good resistance level is perched at 145.30. The next levels are 147.05 and 148.90. This is followed by 150.40. Distant resistance is now seen at 152.00.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Euro/sterling

Last week's range: 0.7754 - 0.8024 (Down)
Previous range: 0.7884 - 0.7980 (Mixed)

Euro/sterling collapsed to a 6 ½-month low last week and touched the bottom of a declining channel. My model went short last Tuesday. The initial outlook is bearish.

Initial support is at 0.7720. This is followed by 0.7680. Distant level remains at 0.7640.

Immediate resistance is at 0.7705. Above 0.7805, resistance now comes at 0.7850. Strong resistance follows at 0.7890, 0.7920 and 0.7965. Distant resistance is now perched is at 0.8024.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com

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