Yen Crosses Lack Clear Direction
EURJPY
If a triangle is unfolding, then the EURJPY must remain below 167.73 (top of wave B). A wave E decline needs to begin before 167.73. Watch the intraday charts closely for signs of a reversal. E waves are usually sharp. A rally through 167.73 would require us to reassess the count.
GBPJPY
The advance from 192.60 is ideally wave 4 within what will probably be a 5 wave drop from 251.10. Potential terminus points for wave 4 are the 38.2% of 242.60-192.60 at 211.70 (reinforced by Elliott channel resistance) and the 100% extension of 192.60-208.94/199.79 at 216.13. In other words, there appears to be some upside in wave 4 remaining.
CHFJPY
The CHFJPY has broken out to multi-year highs, completely negating our bearish bias. One possibility is that a large A-B-C advance is unfolding since the 2000 low at 58.82. Wave C would equal wave A (arithmetically) at 112.27. This is what we are working with as long as price is above 98.27.
CADJPY
We maintain that the CADJPY is headed lower longer term (the series of lower lows and lower highs inspires confidence in the bearish assessment). The bias is bearish as long as price is below 109.62 but ideally, the pair remains below last month’s high at 107.10.
AUDJPY
The rally from 88.17-101.09 is in 5 waves and is either a 1st wave or A wave. Therefore, wave 2 or B will begin very soon and bring the AUDJPY back to at least 96.15 (former 4th wave).
NZDJPY
The NZDJPY remains stuck in a choppy consolidation and probably will for some time. That is not to say that there will not be rewarding range opportunities though. In fact, there are 2 counts that suggest the next move is higher. If a triangle is unfolding since the July 2007 top at 97.74, then wave D is probably underway now to around 88. If a large flat is unfolding since the July top, then wave B of that flat is probably underway now and will exceed 91.42 in the next few months.
TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
DailyFX
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