EURUSD: Don't Be Spooked by Volatility

The drop from the top (1.6039) has traders talking of a major reversal. The EURUSD could be at the beginning of a larger bear move (with price eventually coming under 1.5283) but there is not enough evidence to suggest, with a high degree of confidence, that a top is in place.

There is no change to the bigger picture labeling. In fact, the spike above 1.60 inspires confidence in the larger bullish bias. We know exactly where we are wrong on this count. 1.5611 must hold for the wave IV triangle interpretation (more on that below) to remain valid.

Our triangle labeling has wave IV complete at 1.5468 but the advance since then is a series of 1st and 2nd waves. As long as price is above 1.5611, we maintain that wave iii of 3 of V is underway towards an objective at 1.6325. In summary, remain bullish as long as price is above 1.5611. We know exactly where we are wrong. In such as case, we’ll look to flip and trade from the short side for the first time in a while. Potential support is at 1.5775 and 1.57.

DailyFX

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