IMM Positioning

Net long JPY positions at six-month high

• The latest IMM data covers the week from 22 to 30 December, and thus covers the last trading week of 2008.
• Speculative investors actually increased overall speculative positions marginally, despite year-end approaching, but remain broadly neutral in all G10 currencies, except JPY and GBP.
• Net long JPY positions were built further and now stand at the highest level since May 2008. JPY actually underperformed the other G10 currencies (except the beaten GBP) in the week to 30 December.
• Simultaneously with large-scale sterling weakness around Christmas, net short GBP positions were built slightly and GBP remains the only G10 currency with meaningful net mshort positions against USD.
• On the commodity market, speculative investors remain net long in oil. Since Christmas the oil price has risen significantly.
• On the bond market, net positions remain short in two-year notes, while long in 10-year. Thus implying an implicit bet on a flattening of the curve

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