IMM Positioning

Remarkable turnaround of speculative EUR positions

• Overall speculative positions were increased in the week from 22 April to 29 April, as net short USD positions fell by USD 10.7bn to USD 6.2bn, mainly driven by reduced EUR and GBP positions.
• IMM data on speculative futures market positioning show a noteworthy turnaround of sentiment in EUR with net positioning turning short for the first time since December 2005. The net long EUR position of USD 3.8bn from 22 April was turned into a net short position USD 4.1bn - a reduction of USD 7.9bn. This clearly indicates a shift in market perception, with speculative investors now betting on a EUR weakening vs USD.
• Net GBP positions, which briefly turned positive last week, are sharply reduced by USD 3.6bn to a net short of USD 3.1bn. Accordingly, the bias is still towards further GBP weakness going forward.
• JPY and CHF net longs are increased by USD 2.4bn and USD 0.5bn to USD6.7 and USD 0.8bn respectively. Net long dollar-block (CAD, AUD and NZD) positions have seen small reductions. Accordingly, the scene is set for less risk-taking going forward.

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