IMM Positioning

Speculative investors turn further GBP sour

• The latest IMM data covers the week from 4 to 11 November. The already substantial net short GBP/USD position was extended further. Speculative investors’ net GBP/USD position now stands at its lowest level since mid-2002, reflecting a belief that GBP could drop even further against USD.
• The net short EUR/USD position remained broadly unchanged.
• Net short CHF, AUD and NZD positions were extended while the small net short CAD position was halved.
• Looking at the major currencies, speculative investors extended their overall net positions slightly, implying that the peak in volatility may lie behind for the time being.
• The net oil position turned substantially negative as oil prices struggled due to fears of a global recession. The net long gold position was reduced marginally and it seems as if gold has lost some of its safe-haven status in this crisis.
• On the bond market, speculative investors positioned for a steepening of the curve, as positions in 2Y were extended, while positions in 10Y turned net short

Danske Bank
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