Weekly Forex Technical Overview

Euro/dollar

Last week's range: 1.5287 - 1.5593 (Mixed)
Previous range: 1.5362 - 1.5690 (Down)

The euro/dollar closed mixed after recovering from an over two-month low. My model remains short since 1.5900. The pair is no longer overbought after dropping some 700 pips in less than three weeks. Is that the end of the downward correction? I wouldn’t be surprised.

Initial resistance is at 1.5545. Above 1.5600, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5685. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.5760.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5415. This is followed by 1.5287. Below 1.5230, euro/dollar still has support at 1.5150. Distant support comes at 1.5040.

NEAR-TERM:Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM:Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Last week's range: 102.62 - 105.61 (Down)
Previous range: 103.23 - 105.69 (Up)

Dollar/yen failed to dislodge the 105.60 Gann level and fell aggressively to a three-week low. My model went short, and this is a good strategy.

Initial support is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.

Immediate resistance is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. Next strong barrier looms at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant resistance remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Last week's range: 1.9459 - 1.9786 (Down)
Previous range: 1.9624 - 1.9964 (Down)

Sterling/dollar sank to a 2 ½-month low, breaking the bottom of a triangle and my model remains short.

Immediate support is seen at 1.9459. This is followed by 1.9400, 1.9363 and 1.9338. Distant support is at 1.9184.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9620. Above 1.9680, there is further resistance at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9875. Distant resistance comes at 2.0025.

NEAR-TERM:Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish
LONG-TERM:Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Last week's range: 1.0389 - 1.0622 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0301 - 1.0608 (Up)

Dollar/Swiss failed to break convincingly above 1.0600 and turned lower to form a bearish reversal - a dark cloud cover. My model went short and I like it.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0350. This is followed by 1.0300. Support is then still pegged at 1.0255. Below 1.0130, distant support is at 1.0020.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0440. If this close level gives way, expect a test of 1.0550. This is followed by 1.0622. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0795.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Canada

Last week's range: 1.0000 - 1.0201 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0038 - 1.0242 (Up)

Dollar/Canada made fake breaks only to end lower last week - but still remained inside range. Expect more consolidation.

Initial support comes at 1.0000. The next level is 0.9945. Below 0.9865, distant support is pegged at 0.9745.

Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.0095. This is followed by 1.0175. Above 1.0250, strong resistance is at 1.0325. Distant resistance is perched at 1.0415.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Euro/yen

Last week's range: 158.63 - 163.10 (Down)
Previous range: 160.62 - 163.88 (Down)

Euro/yen fell for three consecutive weeks and formed a bearish flag, which targets the 158.00 area. My system remains short. Stay cautiously short.

Immediate support is at 158.63. This is followed by 158.00. The next level is at 156.80. Distant support is still in place at 154.60.

Initial resistance comes at 159.90. The next resistance is at 160.60. Above 161.50, resistance is at 162.35. The euro/yen retains distant resistance at 165.00.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Euro/sterling

Last week's range: 0.7817 - 0.7941 (Up)
Previous range: 0.7766 - 7946 (Down)

Euro/sterling rallied last week after falling for three consecutive weeks and there is a high risk that the uptrend resumes. My model went long on Friday.

Immediate resistance is still seen at 0.7980. This is followed by 0.7935 and 0.8015. Above 0.8100, the next level is 0.8155. Distant resistance is then seen at 0.8270.

Immediate support is at 0.7890. The next level comes at 0.7845. Below the pivot low at 0.7766, distant support remains at 0.7670.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com

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