Weekly Forex Technical Overview
Euro/dollar
Last week's range: 1.4631 - 1.4910 (Up)
Previous range: 1.4660 - 1.5083 (Down)
Euro/dollar recovered from a six-month low after nearly reaching the target of a double top in the 1.4600 area. My model reversed its short position since July 22, but the risk is on the downside. Again, after a brief bounce, the decline should resume.
Initial support is now seen at 1.4700. The next level is 1.4631. Below the target at 1.4600, further supports remain at 1.4505 and 1.4440. Distant support is at 1.4265.
Immediate resistance comes at 1.4800. This is followed by 1.4845, 1.4902 and 1.4950. The next levels remain at 1.5015, 1.5065 and 1.5110. Distant resistance is at 1.5320.
NEAR-TERM:Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 108.14 - 110.57 (Mixed)
Previous range: 108.38 - 110.30 (Up)
Dollar/yen faked an aggressive decline and a double top on Thursday, but its rally on Friday called the bluff. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. The Gann pivot at 110.35 still ruled last week and will continue to do so at least early this week.
Immediate resistance remains at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10. Distant resistance is at 112.90 from yet another 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40.
Support remains at 109.85. Further strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant support follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.8505 - 1.8796 (Down)
Previous range: 1.8514 - 1.9256 (Down)
Sterling/dollar failed its attempt to recover and closed on a very bearish tone last week. Again, cable formed a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area. The medium term outlook remains negative.
Immediate support is at 1.8405. Further supports are at 1.8330 and 1.8190. Distant support is now pegged at 1.8190.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8480. The next likely caps are 1.8620 and 1.8700. Above 1.8786, further resistance comes at 1.8867. Distant resistance remains in the 1.9100 area.
NEAR-TERM:Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM:Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.0844 - 1.1040 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0743 - 1.1008 (Up)
Dollar/Swiss has alternated up and down days last week and reached a six-month high. My model reversed its long position since July 22, but the risk is on the upside. Again, after a brief pullback, the upmove should resume.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1040. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185. Distant resistance moved up to 1.1360.
Initial support is pegged at 1.0910. Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725. Distant support is at 1.0620.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Canada
Last week's range: 1.0423 - 1.0669 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0564 - 1.0730 (Down)
Dollar/Canada fell for the second week but only gave back half of the gains made two weeks earlier. My model remains short. The market turned up on Friday, but only mildly so, but the next move is unclear even though the commodity prices are falling.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.0530. Above 1.0575, the next level is 1.0615. Distant resistance is 1.0730.
Initial support comes at 1.0423. Below 1.0385, support is now seen at 1.0280. Distant support comes at 1.0170.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Euro/yen
Last week's range: 160.19 - 163.09 (Up)
Previous range: 161.41 - 165.68 (Down)
Euro/yen reversed aggressively from a 3 1/2-month low late last week and my model reversed its short position. Hold small long positions with a tight stop.
Immediate support is now seen at 162.20. The next levels are 161.35 and 160.85. Distant support remains at 158.63.
Strong resistance is at 162.95. The next level is 164.30. Above 165.05, distant resistance is seen at 167.30.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Euro/sterling
Last week's range: 0.7871 - 0.7989 (Up)
Previous range: 0.7794 - 0.7993 (Up)
Euro/sterling rallied last week but got stuck in an inside range. The cross barely remained in a slightly declining channel. My model turned long, so stay long.
Immediate resistance is seen at the nearby level of 0.8015. Above the pivot highs at 0.8022 and 0.8034, further resistance follows at 0.8055. Distant resistance is at 0.8141.
Initial support is at 0.7966. The next supports come at 0.7930 and 0.7900. The next level is 0.7870. Distant support is at 0.7794.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com
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