Weekly Forex Technical Overview
Euro/dollar
Last week's range: 1.4075 - 1.4539 (Up)
Previous range: 1.3882 - 1.4428 (Down)
Euro/dollar reversed aggressive losses to close higher last week after coining a near 2 ½-year low the week before. My model is long on profit taking and more sustained recovery should be under way, as I mentioned in the previous report.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4545. Above 1.4625, resistance is still seen at 1.4810. This is followed by 1.4910. Distant resistance is at 1.5015.
Immediate support is at 1.4375. The next level is 1.4290. Below 1.4180, support is at 1.4075. Further support still comes at 1.4010. Distant support is at 1.3883.
NEAR-TERM:Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM:Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 103.56 - 108.01 (Up)
Previous range: 106.07 - 109.07 (Down)
Dollar/yen surged from a near four-month low to close higher, as the yen remains an ingredient for crosses. My model went long. The medium-term outlook is mixed, but the short-term outlook is bullish.
Immediate resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Above 108.80, look for a test of the 50-point pivot at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant resistance is at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. This is followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.7733 - 1.8386 (Up)
Previous range: 1.7448 - 1.7975 (Up)
Sterling/dollar recovered aggressively late last week from sharp losses. My model remains long and the upside is again favored in the short term.
Good resistance is at 1.8386. Above the strong level at 1.8470, further resistance is at 1.8505. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.8750.
Below 1.8235, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917. Distant support comes at 1.7776.
NEAR-TERM:Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM:Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.0901 - 1.1305 (Down)
Previous range: 1.1129 - 1.1417 (Up
Dollar/Swiss fell sharply, more than I expected, after reaching a near nine-month high the week before. The late recovery took the edge off the decline, but the initial bias is lower once again.
Immediate support is at 1.0980. Below 1.0885, support is still pegged at 1.0844. This is followed by 1.0715. Distant support moved down to 1.0555.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.1100. The next level is 1.1200. This is followed by 1.1360. Above 1.1417 there is a pivot high at 1.1605.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Canada
Last week's range: 1.0570 - 1.0782 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0551 - 1.0821 (Mixed)
Dollar/Canada reversed early gains to fall sharply late last week. That's one week after nailing a 13-month high. My model remains short, and the outlook remains slightly negative.
Support now comes first at 1.0412. This is followed by 1.0350 and 1.0230 (crucial trendline support). Below 1.0180, distant support is now at 0.9974.
Initial resistance is at 1.0550. Above 1.0645, resistance is at 1.0821 from a new pivot high. Distant resistance remains at 1.0867 from another pivot high.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Euro/yen
Last week's range: 147.07 - 155.54 (Up)
Previous range: 147.55 - 156.99 (Down)
Euro/yen surged from an over two-year low to close the week significantly higher. The medium-term outlook is positive, and my model remains long.
Initial resistance level is at 156.80. The next level is 158.50. This is followed by 159.90. Distant resistance is still seen at 161.15.
Immediate support is now seen at 154.45. The next level is 153.70. Below 152.30, distant support is now at 147.07.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Euro/sterling
Last week's range: 0.7848 - 0.8009 (Down)
Previous range: 0.7921 - 0.8077 (Down)
Euro/sterling fell further last week after forming a bearish reversal two weeks earlier. The initial bias is slightly negative.
Initial support is at 0.7848. Below 0.7814, support is seen at 0.7794. Below 0.7766, distant level is now at 0.7640.
Above 0.7960, resistance is at 0.8010. Strong resistance is still seen at 0.8038. The cross then sees resistance at 0.8093 and at 0.8077 from a pivot high. Distant resistance remains is at 0.8262.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com
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