Weekly Forex Technical Overview
Euro/dollar
Last week's range: 1.4438 - 1.4865 (Up)
Previous range: 1.4075 - 1.4539 (Up)
Euro/dollar hit a five-week high last Monday before returning most of the gains. It's basically stuck and needs more information before the next move. My model remains long, but the bias is down.
Immediate support is at 1.4486. The next level is 1.4438. Below 1.4370, support is at 1.4255. Distant support is at 1.4153.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4600. The next level is 1.4685. Above 1.4735, resistance is still seen at 1.4810. This is followed by 1.4910. Distant resistance is at 1.5015.
NEAR-TERM:Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 105.04 - 107.46 (Down)
Previous range: 103.56 - 108.01 (Up)
Dollar/yen edged lower in an inside range, as the yen was a passive ingredient for cross trading. My model remains long. The medium-term outlook is mixed.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The next level is 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Above 108.80, look for a test of the 50-point pivot at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Good support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. This is followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.8264 - 1.8668 (Up)
Previous range: 1.7733 - 1.8386 (Up)
Just like the euro/dollar, cable reached a five-week high, as expected, before surrendering most of the gains. It remains in a downtrend after failing to stay above the median of that channel. My model remains long but the downside is favored first.
Initial support is at 1.8250. Below this level, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917. Distant support comes at 1.7776.
Initial resistance is at 1.8355. Good resistance follows at 1.8475 and 1.8515. Above the strong level at 1.8668, further resistance is at 1.8750. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.8865.
NEAR-TERM:Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM:Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.0698 - 1.1060 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0901 - 1.1305 (Down)
Dollar/Swiss recovered most of its losses after sinking to a seven-week low last Monday. My model is short, but the risk is on the upside.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0973. The next level is 1.1055. This is followed by 1.1185 and 1.1279. Above 1.1417 there is a pivot high at 1.1605.
Immediate support is at 1.0890. Below 1.0790, support is now pegged at 1.0698. Distant support moved down to 1.0555.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Canada
Last week's range: 1.0299 - 1.0514 (Down)
Previous range: 1.0570 - 1.0782 (Down)
Dollar/Canada remained soft after falling to a seven-month low, but the support at 1.0299 was incredibly strong. My model remains short, but the initial outlook is slightly bullish.
Initial resistance is at 1.0400. The next levels are 1.0470 and 1.0550. Above 1.0645, resistance is at 1.0821 from a new pivot high.
Immediate support is at 1.0299. This is followed by 1.0265. Below 1.0180, distant support remains at 0.9974.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Euro/yen
Last week's range: 153.49 - 156.83 (Mixed)
Previous range: 147.07 - 155.54 (Up)
Euro/yen had an uncharacteristically quiet behavior and closed the week unchanged. The medium-term outlook is mixed, and my model remains long.
Good resistance level remains at 156.80. The next level is 158.50. This is followed by 159.90. Distant resistance is still seen at 161.15.
Immediate support is now seen at 153.50. Below 152.30, distant support is now at 147.07.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Euro/sterling
Last week's range: 0.7884 - 0.7980 (Mixed)
Previous range: 0.7848 - 0.8009 (Down)
Euro/sterling traded in a tight range and closed little changed, as its components traded in sync last week. The initial outlook is mixed.
Initial support is at 0.7900. This is followed by 0.7848, 0.7814 and 0.7794. Below 0.7766, distant level is at 0.7640.
Above 0.7960, resistance remains at 0.8010. Strong resistance is still seen at 0.8038. The cross then sees resistance at 0.8093 and at 0.8077 from a pivot high. Distant resistance remains is at 0.8262.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com
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