Weekly Forex Technical Overview
Euro/dollar
Last week's range: 1.3261 - 1.3784 (Down)
Previous range: 1.3705 - 1.4565 (Down)
Euro/dollar fell to a 1 ½-year low last week amid general dollar strength despite struggling higher between Tuesday and Thursday. My model remains short, but only the medium-term bias remains bearish.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.3620. This is followed by 1.3705, 1.3785 and1.3845. Above 1.3935, resistance is pegged at 1.4200.
Immediate support is at 1.3550. The next level is 1.3460. Below 1.3261, support comes at 1.3040 and 1.2935. Distant support is at 1.2490.
NEAR-TERM:Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 97.92 - 105.39 (Down)
Previous range: 103.54 - 106.96 (Down)
Dollar/yen succumbed to a seven-month low below parity under the weight of heavy sales of carry trades. My model remains short. The medium-term outlook is bearish after the pair confirmed a head-and-shoulders formation.
Good support is at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. The next level is 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. The next level is 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75. Distant support follows at 97.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 96.80 and 97.80.
Immediate resistance is at 101.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. The next level is 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Above 103.00, distant resistance is at 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.6790 - 1.7719 (Down)
Previous range: 1.7551 - 1.8366 (Down)
Sterling/dollar fell to a near-five year low and my model remains short. The downside remains favored in the medium term, but there is upside risk in the short term.
Initial resistance is at 1.7180. Good resistance follows at 1.7230 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above the strong level at 1.7500, distant resistance is now seen at 1.7765.
Immediate support is at 1.7095. The next levels are 1.7020, 1.6920 and 1.6790. Below 1.6710, support now comes at 1.6540 from a pivot low. Distant support is seen at 1.6075.
NEAR-TERM:Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM:Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.1130 -1.1489 (Mixed)
Previous range: 1.0818 - 1.1412 (Up)
Dollar/Swiss rallied to an eight-month high last week and my model remains long since the previous Tuesday. Once again, the risk remains on the upside, but a pause is due.
Immediate support is at 1.1240. The next level is 1.1220. Below 1.1140, support is seen at 1.1055. Distant support comes 1.0800.
Good resistance is pegged at 1.1360. The next levels are 1.1412 and 1.1605 from a pivot high. This is followed by 1.1767. Distant resistance is at 1.1865.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Canada
Last week's range: 1.0815 - 1.2119 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0335 - 1.0843 (Up)
Dollar/Canada soared to an over three-year high last week, and my model remains long. The initial outlook is bullish, but a pause is due.
Immediate support is at 1.1655. This is followed by 1.1520. Below 1.1440, distant support now comes at 1.1280.
Initial resistance is at 1.1890. The next level is 1.2119. Above 1.2225, resistance follows at 1.2495.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Euro/yen
Last week's range: 132.25 - 145.28 (Down)
Previous range: 144.04 - 155.33 (Down)
Euro/yen collapsed to an over three-year low, and this weakness was expected. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, and my model remains short. The short term outlook is bullish.
Good resistance level is now at 137.70. The next level is 139.70. This is followed by 141.85. Distant resistance is now seen at 147.30.
Immediate support is now seen at 136.35. The next levels are 135.15, 134.10 and 132.25. Below 129.97, distant support is now at 124.20.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Euro/sterling
Last week's range: 0.7702- 0.8069 (Up)
Previous range: 0.7754 - 0.8024 (Down)
Euro/sterling reversed from a seven-month low to a one month high and then gave back half of these gains on Friday. The initial outlook is slightly bullish.
Above 0.7945, resistance now comes at 0.7980. Strong resistance follows at 0.8025 and 0.8083. Distant resistance is now perched is at 0.8187.
Initial support is at 0.7885. The next level is 0.7840. This is followed by 0.7780. Distant levels are at 0.7700 and 0.7640.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com
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