Weekly Market Outlook - Technical Picture/Pattern Analysis

EUR/USD

Weekly :

Last week sees a downside test followed by a consolidation above main weekly supports. This week open price is below 1.2710 cluster support. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.2390 to 1.2890.

To the upside, while above 1.2490 support, a bullish rebound is possible towards minor resistance at 1.2670 (1st objective). No rejection here will allow price to test main resistance at 1.2710/35 (2nd objective). A break and weekly close above that level is needed to expect further bullish moves towards 1.2890 initially.

To the downside, a break back below 1.2490 support means a test of 1.2330/80 weekly lows (1st objective). Price action has to be monitored at these levels. While a rebound is likely due to oversold status, a break below that support zone argue in favor of downside continuation towards 1.2160 (2nd objective).

EURUSD Weekly

Daily :

Swingy consolidation in symetrical triangle continues. Waiting for a break. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.2490 to 1.2830.

To the upside, while above 1.2490 cluster daily support, rebounds may lead to a test of 1.2740 falling trendline (1st objective). A break and a daily close above this level may allow prices to test last week highs at 1.2820/60 (2nd objective). As a strong resistance zone, 1.2820/60 break means bullish move to 1.2970 is probable.

To the downside, the 1.2490 - 1.2520 support zone has been tested many time and held so far. If break / daily close below, immediate fall to 1.2410 can't be ruled out (1st objective). No rejection here ill lead to a test of 1.2335 low (2nd objective). Sustained break below this level targets 1.20 - 1.21 trading range.

EURUSD Daily

4-Hours :

Triangle consolidation continues. Breakout may occur before end of week. A 200/300 pips move is expected.

To the upside, 1.2730 triangle high may be considered as the main level to monitor in case of a bullish break, but it's only above last Thursday high at 1.2860 (1st objective) that bullish move will be validated. A move towards 1.3030 is then highly possible (2nd objective).

To the downside, 1.2510/40 support zone has to be carefully monitored. A 4-hours close below this level validate bearish breakout. Test of 1.2450 zone may be unavoidable (1st objective), while a susutained break below that level will allow prices to fall back to 1.2340 lows (2nd objective).

EURUSD 4-Hours

GBP/USD

Weekly :

Last week sees another leg down, breaking 1.52 major trendline. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.4725 to 1.5515.

To the upside, a pullback above 1.5205/50 trendline (1st objective) will allow prices to climb back to 1.minor resistance (2nd objective). Once there, a bullish impulse will meet 1.5780 resistance later.

To the downside, 150% FE at 1.4740 act as main support. A pullback below is definitely bearish and a 2nd test of 1.4545 lows may follow (1st objective). No rebound on lows will allow Pound to fall to 161.8% FE at 1.4430 (2nd objective). No rebound here targets 1.4140 (-50% fib. projection) later.

GBPUSD Weekly

Daily :

Last days downmove halted as expected on 150% FE at 1.4790. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.4750 to 1.5255.

To the upside, while above 1.4780, bias remain consolidative. Falling wedge highs comes at 1.5250, wicth is also the previous bottom late October. 1.5250 (1st objective) is the level to monitor. Break above targets a 2nd band of resistance at 1.5530 (2nd objective) witch may be reached before end of week.

To the downside, failure to break above 1.5250 may keep price in recent trading range extending from 1.4660 to 1.5080. Break below 1.4760 support means a test lower to 1.4640 is likely (1st objective). No rebound here will certainly lead to another fall to 161.8% FE at 1.4570 (2nd objective). Break lower meets weekly objectives.

GBPUSD Daily

4-Hours :

Price is trapped in multiple consolidation figures of various scales. What we seek, ahead of playing consolidation moves, is to await and take breakout witch may occur sooner rather than later..

To the upside, the 1.50 - 1.52 zone is full of resistances and wedge high comes at 1.5205. break above that level validate bullish breakout. Targets are 1.5360 (1st objective) and 1.5540 (2nd objective)

To the downside, supports are less numerous.. Break below 1.4850 (1st objective) may lead to a fall to 1.4760 minor trendline (2nd objective). Break below may meet 1.4540/80 (3rd objective).

GBPUSD 4-Hours

USD/JPY

Weekly :

After an attempt above major trendline, price has been finnaly rejected and stays below trendline. Expected tradingrange for cominf weeks extends from 93.40 to 98.40.

To the upside, a pullback above 97.55 (1st objective) and a weekly close above major trendline at 98.40 (2nd objective) must occur in order to expect futher bullish move. 100.50 remain a potential target if that scenario happends.. However, rejection from major trendline make it unlikely for now..

To the downside, the 95.50/80 support zone is strong enough to reject prices… but if not, we may expect a rapid fall towards last week lows at 94.50 (1st objective) This level has to be monitored carefully. Break below 94.50 is trongly bearish. A test of 93.40 may follow (2nd objective), ahead of 91.80 trendline later.

USDJPY Weekly

Daily :

Price is back into daily falling wedge but price action remain very “swingy”, volatile..and irectionless for now. To the upside, break and daily close above 97.10 may be considered as a falling wedge bullish break. Then, 98.20 (1st objective) is a potential target over few days. Even if unlikely for now, a break above 98.20 may lead to a rise towards 100.10 resistance (2nd objective).

To the downside, while below 97.00, bias remain midly to the downside. Break below 95.50 validate expected scenario and a fall to 94.4 wedge low may follow (1st objectvive). Next band of reported resistance is at 93.70 (2nd objective). Break below meets weekly objectives.

USDJPY Daily

4-hours :

Prices keeps moving in a downward channel. We await break of one of channel limts. We favour a downside break. To the upside, 97.60 - 98.30 resistance zone break lead to a rise to 99.60 (1st objective) and 101.10 (2nd objective). To the downside, break back below 95.20 support targets 94.10 (1st objective) and then 93.00 later (2nd objective).

USDJPY 4-hours

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