Weekly Technical Strategist
- EURUSD: ST Weakness Persists, Targets The 1.5342 Level.
- GBPUSD: Continues To Take Back it Recovery Gains, Sets To Accelerate Towards The 1.9676/01 Levels.
- USDJPY: Maintains A Foothold On The Upside In The Short Term
EURUSD
EUR put in a second consecutive week of downside losses on Friday pushing it to as low as 1.5361, its lowest price since Mar 25'08.A follow-through to the downside should likely see the pair attacking and possibly cutting through its Mar 24'08 low residing at 1.5342.Below there will accelerate losses towards the 1.5227 area, its .50 Ret (1.4440-1.6018 high).The weekly studies remain negative suggesting further downside pressure. Upside objectives begin at the 1.5626/00 zone, its April 07'08 low/psycho level followed by the 1.5710 level, marking its April 18'08 low and then the 1.5895/I 5912 area, its Mar 31'08/April 10'08 highs with the ultimate zone resting at its psycho level/YTD high at 1.6000/20.On the whole, while momentum and price action continue to point lower, further weakness is expected in short term.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term - Bearish
- Short Term - Bearish
- Medium Term - Bullish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: -1.27%
- Past Month: +0.84%
- Past Quarter: +8.03%
- Year-To-Date: +5.76%
Weekly Range:
Weekly Chart: EURUSD
GBPUSD
GBP pushed lower at the end of the week taking back almost all of its recovery gains off the 1.9623 low. With this development, the pair is now set to weaken towards its April 30'08 low at 1.9676 initially followed by its April 15'08 low at 1.9601.Further decline will aimed at its 2008 lows at 1.9360/35 or even lower. Daily and weekly momentum indicators remain supportive of this view.However, while the last two support levels remain significant, continued trading above there will suggest a recovery higher targeting the 1.9727/19 area, its Mar 05'08/April 01'08 ahead of the 1.9965/2027 zone, its Feb 27'08/April 21 & 28'08 highs could be seen again. Beyond there if occurs will keep the pair putting pressure on its Mar 27'08 high at 2.0191 and then its YTD high at 2.0398.All in all, as long as the current downside weakness continues to be maintained, risks remains for the pair to head further lower.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Bearish
- Short Term -Bearish
- Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: -0.70.%
- Past Month: +0.20%
- Past Quarter: -0.14 %
- Year-To-Date: -0.74%
Weekly Range:
Weekly Chart: GBPUSD
USDJPY
After two negative weeks were seen since recovering off its YTD low at 95.75 in Mar'08,USDJPY continued on its upside offensive the past week trading to as high as 105.70 following its clean break through the 104.97 level, its Jan 23'08 low. Having maintained steady weekly upside gains for the past three weeks, chances of further extension especially now that its weekly studies are positive and trending higher is likely towards its .382 Ret(124.15-95.75 decline) at 106.61 and next the 108.61 level, marking its Feb 14'08 high. On the downside, the 104.97 level just eroded should now reverse roles and provide support on any weakness from the present level. Failing to do that could see the pair trading lower aiming at the 103.22/102.95 levels, its April 29'08 low/April 03'08 high with a break of there paving the way for a run at a stronger support standing at the 100.03/00 area, its April 10'08 low/psycho level. In short, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the short term and should extend more gains in the days ahead.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Bullish
- Short Term -Bullish
- Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: +0.89%
- Past Month: +4.40.99%
- Past Quarter: -10:69%
- Year-To-Date: -5.71%
Weekly Range:
- High -0.105.70
- Low -103.22
Weekly Chart: USDJPY
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report
|
