Weekly Technical Strategist
- EURUSD: Upside Resolution Of Sideways Range To Target The 1.3758/85 Levels.
- GBPUSD: The 1.5048/69 Zone To Serve As A Trigger For A Return To The 1.5534 Area.
- USDJPY: USDJPY Yet To Break And Maintain Below The 90.91 Level.
EURUSD
With the range trading between the 1.2330 and the 1.3298 levels cleanly resolved to the upside the past week after cutting through key resistance levels, risks are now tilted to the upside for additional gains aiming at the 1.3758/85 zone, representing its .382 Ret/Oct 09’08 high. However, immediate resistance is seen at the 1.3531 level, its Oct 20’08 high. Last week’s gains remain its strongest upside gains since tumbling off the 1.6038 level. While its former resistance turned support at the 1.3298 level holds and its weekly studies continue to trend higher, we envisage higher prices targeting the above mentioned levels in the short term. On the downside, the 1.3298 level now comes in as the initial support with a loss of there setting the stage for further corrective declines towards its Nov 25 & 05’08 highs at 1.3081/1.3116 ahead of the 1.2814 level, its Nov 19’08 high. On the whole, having decisively broken through the 1.3298 level, EUR now aims at higher prices towards the 1.3758/85 levels.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Bullish
- Short Term -Bullish
- Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: +5.20%
- Past Month: -0.32%
- Past Quarter: -0.20%
- Year To Date: -8.30%
Weekly Range:
GBPUSD
Although a higher weekly close was printed at the end of the week, attempts to break and close above the 1.5048/59 zone(daily chart) failed suggesting likely lower prices. We maintain that as long as the mentioned zone remains unbroken, GBP should back down and decline towards the 1.4558 level, its Nov 13’08 low with a loss of there paving the way for a push towards the 1.4470 level with a loss of there creating scope for a decline towards the 1.4045 level, its Jan’02 low. On the other hand, breaking and holding above the 1.5048/59 zone will leave the pair heading towards the 1.5534 level, its Nov 25’08 high and then its Nov 10’08 high at 1.5885.Its medium to long term bearishness remains in force implying that the present price action is corrective of that trend. All in all, with continued failure seen at the 1.5048/59 zone,GBP may weaken and continue its MT downtrend.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Mixed
- Short Term -Bearish
- Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: +1.46%
- Past Month: -4.16%
- Past Quarter: -10.54%
- Year To Date: -24.74%
Weekly Range:
USDJPY
While a weekly higher close was seen on Friday following its decline to as low as 88.34,reversal of the said decline has now produced a hammer candle(bottom reversal signal) on the daily chart. A follow-through to the upside is required to confirm the efficacy of the mentioned hammer candle pattern. In such a case, , the 93.56 level and the 96.35/95.75 level, its Oct 31’08/Mar’08 lows will serve as resistance with further gains if seen aiming at its Nov 10’08 high at 99.48 followed by its psycho level/Nov 04’08 high at 100.00/55.If this scenario plays out on the back of the said hammer, that upmove still remains corrective as the overall outlook for the pair continues to point lower with a loss of the 90.91 level envisaged to trigger weakness towards its Dec 12’08 low at 88.34 ahead of the 86.52 level, its 1.618 Fib Ext and next the 79.70 level, its April’1995 low. Its weekly studies are bearish and trending lower suggesting further downside gains. In short, while failure to hold on to its gains below the 90.91 level portends higher price recovery, overall medium term bearishness remains in play.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Bearish
- Short Term -Bearish
- Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: -2.12%
- Past Month: -2.97%
- Past Quarter: -0.03%
- Year To Date: -18.53%
Weekly Range:
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report
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