Weekly Technical Strategist
- EURUSD: Declines Activated At The 1.4719 Level Set To Continue.
- GBPUSD: GBP Continues Its Weakness Into 2009,Opens The Year Lower.
- AUDUSD: Corrective Upside Recovery Builds Into 2009.
EURUSD
EUR ended the week on the downside at 1.3840 following its test and failure at the 1.4363 level forming a shooting star candle pattern( a top reversal signal) the past week. Although the pair closed the year lower with YTD performance of 4.22% which is now supported by the above mentioned nearer term declines, short term recovery higher from the pair's overall declines off the 1.6038 level is still in force. This indicates that the present price action remains corrective of the said short term uptrend. A follow-through to the downside on the past week's weakness is expected to drive EUR lower towards the 1.3785 level, its Oct 09'08 high ahead of the 1.3531 level, its Oct 20'08 high with a loss of there extending price losses towards the 3298 level,Oct 30'08 high. On the upside, strong resistance levels situated at the 1.4363 and the 1.4719 levels should hold off bulls' incursions and turn the pair lower .However, a trade above there is will put the pair in position to head further higher towards the 1.4867 level, its Sept 22'08 high. Its weekly stochastics remains bullish and pointing higher supporting its ST uptrend. On the whole, with rejection of higher prices continuing to be seen, nearer term declines started at the 1.4719 level looks to head further lower.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term - Bearish
- Short Term - Bullish
- Medium Term - Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: -1.47%
- Past Month: +10.01%
- Past Quarter: -1.05%
- Year To Date: -4.22%
Weekly Range:
GBPUSD
Following the pair's collapse at the 1.5754 level and its subsequent declines forming a shooting star-like candle pattern printed on Dec 17'08,two weeks of further downside losses has seen 2008 close lower at 1.4632.GBP opened the year lower the past week declining to as low as 1.4352 before closing the week at 1.4501.We continue to see the pair targeting its 2008 low at 1.4352 ahead of the 1.4045 level, its Jan'02 low and possibly lower. Any recovery higher seen at the current price levels should initially target the 1.4558 level, its Nov 13'08 low followed by its Dec 26'08 low at 1.4652 and then its Jan 01'09 high at 1.4831.Further upside will target the 1.5250/65 zone. Its weekly stochastics remains bearish though in oversold zone. All in all, with the pair opening the year lower in line with its 2008 declines,GBP is now expected to push further lower in the days and weeks ahead.
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term -Bearish
- Short Term - Bearish
- Medium Term - Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: -1.04%
- Past Month: -5.04%
- Past Quarter: -17.94%
- Year To Date: -26.31%
Weekly Range:
AUDUSD
A fourth-week of upside recovery was seen the past week since AUDUSD touched a low of 0.6292 on Dec 05'08.We continue to maintain that the pair still has some upside incursions to make leaving its Dec 18'08 high at 0.7138 as the immediate upside target with a loss of there setting the stage for a run at the 0.7239 level, its Oct 14'08 high. A decisive break and close above there will trigger a short term upmove towards its .618 Ret(0.8520-0.6008 decline) at 0.7520.Its weekly RSI and Stochastics are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside gains. Supports are located at the 0.7015 level, its Nov 05'08 high followed by the 0.6810 level, its Dec 11'08 high and then its Dec 15'08 low/Nov 25'08 high at 0.6617/12.On the whole, while the pair holds above the 0.7015 level, odds are for its corrective upmove to head further higher .
Directional Bias:
- Nearer Term - Bullish
- Short Term - Mixed
- Medium Term - Bearish
Performance in %:
- Past Week: +3.35%
- Past Month: -7.28%
- Past Quarter: -11.62%
- Year To Date: -19.84%
Weekly Range:
- High -0.7118
- Low -0.68343
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report
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