Weekly Technical Strategist
EURUSD - Rejection Candle Halts Recent Medium Term Upmove.
EURUSD- Although EUR retains its broader medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in early Mar'09, its price action the past week has halted that uptrend temporarily having printede a rejection candle and closed lower on Friday. Bias remains to the downside for the continuation of that nearer term downtrend initiated at the 1.4339 level towards the 1.3793 level ,its May 28'09 high and then the 1.3738 level, representing its Mar 19'09 high. These key levels are expected to reverse roles and provide support there by preserving the pair's medium term uptrend. A break below there though not expected at the current levels will open the door for further lower prices targeting the 1.3424 level, its May 18'09 low. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. To the topside, recovery if seen should initially target the 1.4267 level, its Jun 05'09 high followed by the 1.4339 level, representing its Jun 03'09 high. A cut through there will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.4867 level, its Sept 22'08 high.On the whole,while we retain our medium term bais on the pair, it remains pressured to the upside neearer term.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week: -1.13%
Past Month: +6.89%
Past Quarter: -3.33%
Year To Date: -0.03
Weekly Range:
High -1.4339
Low -1.3933
Weekly Chart: EURUSD
GBPUSD - Weakening On Rejection Of Higher Level Prices.
GBPUSD- A cap was seen on the pair's medium term run to the upside the past week, driving GBP sharply lower to close at 1.5981 and printing a shooting star candle( a top reversal signal). With that said and coupled with the fact that its daily studies have turned lower, a continuation of its nearer term downside is envisaged towards the 1.5724 level, its Dec 17'08 high. We expect the latter level to revert to support and turn the pair higher gain but if that fails, a run at the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high will follow where a break and hold below there will further downside weakness towards its May 18'09 low at 1.5117. However, if a recovery is seen, then its psycho level residing at the 1.6000 level will be aimed at initially with break above there allowing for further gains towards the 1.6399 level, its Nov 03'08 high and then its 2009 high resting at 1.6663.Its medium term upside will be triggered on a loss of the latter opening up for more upside gains. All in all, GBP has paused its medium term uptrend and now looks to head to the downside nearer term
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week:: +1.28%
past Month: +9.39%
Past Quarter: -1.86%
Year To Date:: +9.22%
Weekly Range:
High -1.6663
Low -1.5941
Weekly Chart: GBPUSD
USDJPY: Recovery Puts USDJPY Back Above The 97.24 Level.
USDJPY- As recovery higher continued the past week, USDJPY broke through its daily falling channel and its key resistance at the 97.24 level, its May 28'09 high to close the week higher at 98.66. This is coming on the back of a recovery triggered off the 93.89 level, its May 21'09 low following its weakness started at the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Having broken and held above the mentioned resistance levels, odds now point to higher prices towards the its May 07'09 high at 99.74 with a loss of there putting the pair in position for further upside gains towards the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Beyond there will resume the USDJPY medium term uptrend on hold since early April towards the 103.07 level, its Oct 14'09 high. Its weekly RSI has turned higher suggesting further upside gains. On the downside, its channel breakout point currently at 98.14 will come in as the initial support followed by its May 28'09 high at 97.24.Additional lower prices will aim at the 93.89 level. On the whole, recovery offensive invalidating key resistance levels, risk has now turned to the upside.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Neutral
Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
Past Week: +3.38%
Past Month: -3.60%
Past Quarter: +9.53%
Year To Date: +8.79%
Weekly Range:
High -98.89
Low -94.45
Weekly Chart: USDJPY
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report
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