USD/CAD – 1.2640

As the greenback has rebounded after holding above previous support at 1.2414, suggesting recent decline is not ready to resume yet and further consolidation is in store, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.2690-00 and bring another decline later, below 1.2500 would bring test of this week’s low 1.2441. Looking ahead, only break of 1.2414 support would confirm recent wave c decline is under way for weakness to 1.2350, then 1.2300 but loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2200-10 and price should stay well above 1.2000 level, bring rebound later. We are keeping our bearish count that wave b ended at 1.3794 and wave c has commenced for further fall to aforesaid downside targets. 

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2410-20, then towards 1.2200.

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On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3900 had been met and gain to 1.4700 would follow.

On the upside, whilst initial marginal recovery cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2691 and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. Above resistance at 1.2691 would signal the retreat from 1.2778 has ended instead, bring another corrective bounce to this level and later towards previous support at 1.2859 but upside should be limited to resistance at 1.2944 and upside should falter well below psychological resistance at 1.3000, bring another decline later.

Recommendation: Hold short entered at 1.2650 for 1.2450 with stop above 1.2750.

Longer term – The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.


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