As the greenback has remained under pressure after early breach of previous support at 1.0052, bearishness remains for the decline from 1.0524 to extend further weakness towards previous support at 0.9892, however, only a daily close below this level would retain downside bias and confirm the fall from 1.0658 top has resumed and bring subsequent decline to next support at 0.9786 but reckon 0.9726 chart point would hold

Despite last week’s rise to 1.5884, the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5708) would be seen, below would bring retracement of recent rise to 1.5665-70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5321-1.5884 and previous resistance) but renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.5884 would extend the rise from 1.5234 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5990-00

Although dollar has recovered after early fall to 0.9112, suggesting consolidation would be seen and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9332) cannot be ruled out, however, the flat ground Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9355) should limit upside, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9112 would extend the fall from 0.9595 top for retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 0.9067

The single currency only retreated to 1.3026 last week before finding renewed buying interest there moved higher in line with our expectations, however, as euro has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.3233, suggesting further consolidation would take place and below said support would bring retracement of recent rise from 1.2624 to 1.3000, then to 1.2926-29 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2624-1.3233)

Although the greenback broke below previous support at 76.55 and dropped to as low as 76.03 last week, Friday’s rebound on dollar’s broad-based strength after the release of better-than-expected U.S. job data suggests low is possibly formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 77.15), however, a daily close above this line is needed to suggest the retreat from 78.29 has possibly ended and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom

Although the single currency retreated from last week’s high of 102.21 to as low as 99.25 earlier this week, renewed buying interest just emerged below the Kijun-Sen and has rebounded and euro has rebounded, a daily close above 100.65-70 (current level of the Tenkan-Sen and previous resistance) would suggest the retreat from 102.21 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to this week’s high of 101.45.

As the currency pair has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 1.0052, retaining our view that the decline from 1.0524 is still in progress and below this week’s low at 0.9964 would extend weakness towards previous support at 0.9892, however, only breach there would confirm the decline from 1.0658 top has resumed and extend further decline to next support at 0.9786

The single currency met renewed selling interest at 0.8409 (just missed our sell entry at 0.8410 by 1 point) last week and slipped from thee this week, bearishness remains for a test of 0.8255, however, only a break of previous support at 0.8222 would retain bearishness and extend the medium term downtrend to 0.8198 (61.8% projection of 0.8665-0.8302 measuring from 0.8422) but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.8145-50

Although the single currency has remained under pressure and the corrective decline from 1.2475 temporary top may bring retracement of recent upmove for marginal weakness, still reckon support at 1.2000 (SNB’s minimum rate) would hold and bring another rebound later. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2127) would suggest low is possibly formed and bring a stronger rebound to 1.2195-00

Kiwi has continued to move higher after falling to 0.7371 in late Nov, last month’s breach of previous resistance at 0.8242 signals the correction from 0.8842 has ended there and bullishness remains for this rise from 0.7371 to extend further gain to 0.8343, then towards 0.8500, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon previous resistance at 0.8572 would hold form here

We recommended to buy aussie at 1.0200 in our previous update on 11 Jan 2012, however, the currency pair only retreated to 1.0233 before finding renewed buying interest and has rallied from there throughout the rest of January, price surged to as high as 1.0688 last week. As price is still trading well above both rising Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, suggesting bullishness remains for a test of previous resistance area at 1.0753-65, however, a daily close above there is needed to retain bullishness

The British pound has continued to move higher and previous resistance at 1.5670 was penetrated, the bullish cross-over of the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen also suggest low has been formed at 1.5234, so bullishness is seen for retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.5775, then test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.5788), above there would extend gain to 1.5811 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6167-1.5234) and possibly 1.5890-00.

Last week’s sustained breach below the Ichimoku cloud bottom as well as previous support at 0.9245 add credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 0.9595 and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 0.9067, however, a daily close below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9058) is needed to confirm, bring retracement of recent upmove to psychological support at 0.9000.

The single currency moved higher in line with our expectations and tested the Ichimoku cloud bottom last Friday, the bullish cross-over of the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.2624 and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent downtrend to 1.3244 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4248-1.2624) and possibly 1.3300, however, upside should be limited to 1.3400

Despite last week’s rise to 78.29, failure to penetrate this resistance and the subsequent sharp retreat formed a shooting star on the daily chart, followed by a long black candlestick and these pattern painted a pretty bearish picture for the time being, suggesting a test of support at 76.55 cannot be ruled out, however, only a daily close below this level would shift risk to downside for further weakness to 76.00.

The single currency only eased to 98.90 on Monday (we recommended to buy euro again at 98.55) before finding renewed buying interest there (just above the Tenkan-Sen) and the single currency rallied again from there in line with our expectations to as high as 102.21 yesterday, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 97.04. The indicated bullish pattern, Three White Soldiers, were taking effect throughout this week.

The currency pair finally penetrated support at 1.0052 on broad-based weakness in the greenback, suggesting the decline from 1.0524 is still in progress and although price has recovered from yesterday’s low of 0.9981, upside should be limited and bearishness remains for another decline, break of said support would extend the aforesaid fall towards 0.9900, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, support at 0.9892 should remain intact

Cable’s rebound from .15234 turned out to be stronger than expected and the breach of Kijun-Sen suggests a temporary low has been formed at 1.5234 and upside risk is seen for correction of recent decline, however, only a daily close above 1.5775-88 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) would add credence to this view, bring further gain to 1.5810-15

Dollar’s stronger-than-expected retreat signals a temporary top has been formed at 0.9595 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 0.9067, however, a daily close below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9059) is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to psychological support at 0.9000.