- Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
- Time of formation: 15 Oct 2012
- Trend bias: Sideways
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
- Time of formation: 27 Feb 2013
- Trend bias: Up
AUD/JPY – 95.92
Although aussie resumed recent upmove as suggested and hit a recent high of 97.60 (exactly 2 times extension of 74.45-83.55 measuring from 79.40) late last week, the subsequent retreat to 93.00 suggests a temporary top is formed at 97.60, however, as the pair found renewed buying interests above the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for gain to 96.40-50 and possibly to 97.00, however, break of said resistance at 97.60 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 98.00-10 but price should falter below 99.75 ((2.236 times extension of 74.45-83.55 measuring from 79.40) ) and psychological resistance at 100.00 should remain intact.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 94.50-60 is likely, reckon 94.00-10 would hold and bring another rebound. Only break of said support at 93.00 would abort and signal another leg of corrective decline from 97.60 top is underway for test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 92.55) and then 92.00 but reckon 91.60-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 82.00-97.60) and support at 91.15-20 should remain intact, bring another rally later.
Recommendation: Buy again at 94.00 for 97.00 with stop below 93.00.
On the weekly chart, alothough aussie extended recent upmove to 97.60 last week, the subsequent retreat to 93.00 suggests a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation within 97.60-93.00 would be seen, whilst initial recovery to 96.90-00 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 97.60 should hold and bring another retreat later, below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 94.42) would bring another test of 93.00 support but only break there would bring retracement of recent upmove to 91.60-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 82.00-97.60), then support at 91.15-20, however, reckon psychological support at 90.00 would limit downside and 89.80 (50% FIbonacci retracement) should remain intact, bring another rally later.
On the upside, only break of 97.60 resistance would confirm recent upmove has once again resumed and extend further gain to 98.50, then towards 99.75 ((2.236 times extension of 74.45-83.55 measuring from 79.40) ) but reckon psychological resistance at 100.00 would limit upside and risk remains for another retreat later, having said that, our medium term upside target for the rise from record low of 55.06 remains at previous resistance at 104.47.