Candlesticks and Ichimoku Weekly |
Written by Action Forex |
Sep 18 13 08:09 GMT
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
- Time of formation: 15 Oct 2012
- Trend bias: Sideways
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Evening doji
- Time of formation: 12 Apr 2013
- Trend bias: Up
AUD/JPY – 92.80
Aussie's rally after holding above support at 86.45 together with the breach of resistance at 93.05 add credence to our view that the decline from 105.40 has ended at 86.45 and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of this decline to 93.70 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 105.40-86.45), then towards 94.50, however, reckon upside would be limited to 95.00-10 and price should falter below 95.90-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later due to overbought condition.
On the downside, whilst pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 92.17) and then 91.70-75 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.03) would limit downside and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Only below the lower Kumo (now at 88.89) would abort and signal top is formed instead and risk weakness to 88.00-10, then 87.70-75 but reckon 87.20-25 would limit downside and price should stay well above support at 86.45 and bring another rebound later this month.
Recommendation: Buy at 90.00 for 93.00 with stop below 89.00.
On the weekly chart, although a doji was formed last week, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 90.00) would limit aussie's downside and bring another rise later to 93.70 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 105.40-86.45), then towards 95.00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 95.92 (50% Fibonacci retracement as well as current level of the Kijun-Sen) and 97.35-40 would hold from here, bring another decline probably in Q4.
On the downside, expect pullback to 91.30-35 (last week's low) and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 90.00) should attract renewed buying interest, bring another rise later. A weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen would suggest top is possibly formed and bring weakness to 89.00, then 88.00 before prospect of another rebound. Only a drop below the lower Kumo (now at 87.24) would suggest the rebound from last month's low of 86.45 has ended and bring further weakness towards this level, then 86.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 74.45-105.40) but price should stay well above 84.79 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 72.05-105.40).
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