Candlesticks and Ichimoku Weekly |
Written by Action Forex |
Sep 19 13 06:36 GMT
- Last Candlesticks pattern: N/A
- Time of formation: N/A
- Trend bias: Near term up
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 30 May 2013
- Trend bias: Near term up
EURGBP – 0.8389
Euro has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the decline from this year's high of 0.8815 to bring further weakness to 0.8330-35 and possibly towards 0.8286 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.7756-0.8815), however, downside is likely to be limited to 0.8255 (1.236 times projection of 0.8815-0.8398 measuring from 0.8770) and price should stay above previous resistance at 0.8225, bring another strong rebound later this month or in Q4.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.8450-55 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8505 (previous support turned resistance and current level of the Kijun-Sen) should hold, bring another decline later. A daily close above this level would suggest low is possibly formed and bring a stronger rebound to 0.8550 and possibly towards 0.8600. Looking ahead, only a break of 0.8651 (previous resistance) would confirm and signal fall from 0.8770 has ended, bring further subsequent gain towards 0.8700 and possibly to key resistance at 0.8730.
Recommendation: We are inclined to buy euro at 0.8285 for 0.8485 with stop below 0.8185.
On the weekly chart, as the single currency has continued to move lower after breaking previous support at 0.8398, retaining our view that the decline from recent high of 0.8815 (2013 high) is still in progress and near term downside risk remains for retracement of recent upmove towards 0.8285-86 (current level of the lower Kumo and 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.7756-0.8815) and possibly previous resistance at 0.8225, however, price should stay well above 0.8161-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.7756-0.8815 and another previous resistance) and bring another rally in early Q4.
On the upside, whilst recovery to the upper Kumo (now at 0.8479) cannot be ruled out, reckon the convergence of the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now both at 0.8563) would remain intact and bring another decline later. A daily close above the Kijun-Sen would bring a stronger rebound to 0.8600 but only break of 0.8651 (previous resistance) would confirm low is formed and signal fall from 0.8770 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 0.8700 and possibly to key resistance at 0.8730. Having said that, a breach above resistance at 0.8770 is needed to revive bullishness and signal the correction from 0.8815 (2013 high) has ended and bring a retest of said this year's high of 0.8815 later this year which is expected to hold on first testing.
About the Author
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500 GMT