AUD/USD – 1.0276

Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081

Trend: Up

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0185, Target: 1.0385, Stop: 1.0125

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

New strategy :

Buy at 1.0185, Target: 1.0385, Stop: 1.0125

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As the Australian dollar has staged a strong rebound after falling to 1.0116 earlier this week, adding credence to our view that the wave v of recent 5-waver from 1.0599 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.0305-10, then towards 1.0340-45. Having said that, a sustained breach of resistance at 1.0375-80 is needed to confirm and signal the 2nd wave c of the complex wave (b) has ended at 1.0116, bring headway towads resistance at 1.0455-60, then 1.0477.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move with 1: 0.9223, 2: 0.8770, 3: 1.0183, iv: 0.9536 and wave 5 of 3 has possibly ended at 1.1081, however, the rebound from 0.9388 suggests the a-b-c wave A has ended there and wave B correction to retrace the A leg decline is still unfolding with a leg ended at 1.0753, followed by b leg at 0.9664, hence c leg has possibly ended at 1.0857 and resistance at 1.1081 should remain intact.

In view of this, we are looking to buy aussie on pullback. Only below said support at 1.0116 would abort and signal recent decline from 1.0599 is still in progress for weakness towards 1.0055-60 but this c leg of the final part of the complex wave (b) should be limited to psychological support at 1.0000 and bring another rebound later.

On the bigger picture, the major rise from 0.6007 is wave (B) and only wave iii of wave C has ended at 0.9407, followed by wave 4 at 0.8066 and wave 5 has either ended at 1.1081 or may extend to 1.1195/00 but reckon 1.1300 would hold.