AUD/USD – 1.0296

Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081

Trend: Up

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.0175, Target: 1.0375, Stop: 1.0140

Position: - Long at 1.0175
Target:  - 1.0375
Stop:- 1.0140

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 1.0175, Target: 1.0375, Stop: 1.0220

Position: - Long at 1.0175
Target:  - 1.0375
Stop:- 1.0220

As aussie found decent demand yesterday and staged the anticipated rebound from 1.0145 (yesterday’s low), retaining our bullishness and the breach of Friday’s high of 1.0280 adds credence to our view that the retreat from 1.0387 (last week’s high) has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of this level. Looking ahead, only above said resistance at 1.0387 would extend the move from 0.9667 for gain towards 1.0450/55 but 1.0500 is likely to hold from here due to broad consolidative outlook, bring retreat later.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move with 1: 0.9223, 2: 0.8770, 3: 1.0183, iv: 0.9536 and wave 5 of 3 has possibly ended at 1.1081, however, the rebound from 0.9388 suggests the a-b-c wave A has ended there and wave B correction to retrace the A leg decline has either ended at 1.0753 or may bring another rise to 1.0900 but resistance at 1.1081 should remain intact.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0175. Only below said support at 1.0145 would abort and risk a deeper correction of recent rise to 1.0100-10 but break of support at 1.0051 is needed to confirm the rise from 0.9667 has ended and bring weakness to psychological support at 1.0000 which is likely to hold on first testing.

On the bigger picture, the major rise from 0.6007 is wave (B) and only wave iii of wave C has ended at 0.9407, followed by wave 4 at 0.8066 and wave 5 has either ended at 1.1081 or may extend to 1.1195/00 but reckon 1.1300 would hold.