AUD/USD – 1.0829

Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081

Trend: Up

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0635, Target: 1.0835, Stop: 1.0565

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Although aussie has risen again after brief pullback and recent rise from 0.9388 may extend further gain in wave c to 1.0850-60 and possibly 1.0900, overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0950-60 and the diagonal triangle outlook of the latest move suggest this c leg should falter below previous resistance at 1.1081, bring retreat later.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move with 1: 0.9223, 2: 0.8770, 3: 1.0183, iv: 0.9536 and wave 5 of 3 has possibly ended at 1.1081, however, the rebound from 0.9388 suggests the a-b-c wave A has ended there and wave B correction to retrace the A leg decline is still unfolding with a leg ended at 1.0753, followed by b leg at 0.9664, hence c leg is still in progress for gain towards 1.0900 but resistance at 1.1081 should remain intact.

In view of this, would not chase this move here and we prefer to buy aussie on subsequent pullback. Below 1.0701 (yesterday’s low) would suggest top is possibly formed and bring retracement to next support at 1.0682 and possibly towards 1.0630/35 but renewed buying interest should emerge above support at 1.0569, bring another rally later this month.

On the bigger picture, the major rise from 0.6007 is wave (B) and only wave iii of wave C has ended at 0.9407, followed by wave 4 at 0.8066 and wave 5 has either ended at 1.1081 or may extend to 1.1195/00 but reckon 1.1300 would hold.