AUD/USD – 0.9503
Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081
Original strategy :
Buy at 0.9225, Target: 0.9425, Stop: 0.9165
New strategy :
Buy at 0.9350, Target: 0.9550, Stop: 0.9290
Aussie's post-FOMC rally signals recent rise in wave c is still in progress and may bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9550 and possibly towards 0.9600-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp rise beyond previous wave iv at 0.9666 and risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later. We are keeping our view that wave v has ended earlier at 0.8848 and major a-b-c wave correction is unfolding with a: 0.9234, b: 0.8898 and wave c is now in progress for a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 0.9600.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move with 1: 0.9223, 2: 0.8770, 3: 1.0183, iv: 0.9536 and wave v of 3 has ended at 1.1081 (it could also be the top of entire wave 5). In view of recent acceleration of decline, a sustained breach below support at 0.9672 would confirm wave 5 has ended at 1.1081 and bring major correction of medium term uptrend to 0.8800.
In view of this, we are still looking to reinstate long on pullback but at a higher level as as yesterday's low of 0.9336 should limit downside. Below support at 0.9285 would abort and signal a temporary top is formed instead, risk correction to previous support at 0.9223 but reckon 0.9165-70 would hold from here, bring another rally.
On the bigger picture, the major rise from 0.6007 is wave (B) and only wave iii of wave C has ended at 0.9407, followed by wave 4 at 0.8066 and wave 5 has either ended at 1.1081 or may extend to 1.1195/00 but reckon 1.1300 would hold.