USD/CAD – 0.9752

Recent wave:  Only wave iii of c has ended at 0.9931

Trend:  Sideways

Original strategy : 

Buy at 0.9720, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 0.9660

New strategy  : 

Buy at 0.9720, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 0.9660

Despite Friday’s rebound to 0.9827, as the greenback has retreated again after faltering below this resistance, suggesting near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness to 0.9710/20, however, if our view that a temporary low has been formed at 0.9667 is correct, downside should be limited and bring another rebound later. Above last week’s high at 0.9843 would suggest the retreat from 0.9974 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for rebound to 0.9900 but break of resistance at 0.9974 is needed to add credence to our mildly bullish count that wave 5 has ended at 0.9667 and bring retracement of recent decline to psychological resistance at 1.0000 but reckon resistance at 1.0060 would hold from here.

In view of this, we are looking to buy on next decline. Only below said support at 0.9667 would signal downtrend has resumed and extend weakness towards 0.9600/10.

To recap, early breach of 1.0108 signals the wave iv from 0.9931 has ended at 1.0854 or 1.0674 (with a short (c)), under this count, the wave v has commenced with minor wave (i) ended at 0.9980 and wave (ii) has possibly ended at 1.0287 with (a) at 1.0374, (b): 0.9977 and a short (c) at 1.0287, the breach of 0.9931 confirms wave (iii) is unfolding for weakness to 0.9600 and possibly 0.9500.