USD/CAD – 0.9947

Recent wave:  Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and A-B-C correction has possibly ended at 1.0658

Trend:  Near term down

Original strategy : 

Sold at 1.0050, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 1.0040

Position: - Short at 1.0050
Target:  - 0.9900
Stop:- 1.0040

New strategy  : 

Hold short entered at 1.0050, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 1.0000

Position: - Short at 1.0050
Target:  - 0.9900
Stop:- 1.0000

Remark: Due to holidays, no update from 9 Feb – 20 Feb, Elliott Wave Trade Idea update will resume on Tuesday - 21 Feb 2012.

Despite yesterday’s bounce to 0.9995, as renewed selling interest emerged there and price has retreated again, retaining our bearishness for recent decline to resume after consolidation, break of last week’s low of 0.9928 would confirm and extend the decline from 1.0524 in C wave to 0.9892 support, however, break there is needed to bring weakness to 0.9850 but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9800 and risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later this month. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.0050. Only above resistance at 1.0034 (last Friday’s high) would abort and signal a temporary low is possibly formed and risk a stronger rebound to 1.0071 and possibly 1.0100-10 but break of latter level would confirm and risk a stronger bounce to 1.0148 resistance, above there would signal the aforesaid fall has possibly ended instead and risk test of 1.0178 first.

To recap, early breach of 1.0108 signals the wave iv from 0.9931 has ended at 1.0854 or 1.0674 (with a short (c)), under this count, the wave v has commenced with minor wave (i) ended at 0.9980 and wave (ii) has possibly ended at 1.0287 with (a) at 1.0374, (b): 0.9977 and a short (c) at 1.0287, the breach of 0.9931 confirms wave (iii) is unfolding for weakness towards 0.9200-10 (50% projection of 1.0854-0.9446 measuring from 0.9914).