USD/CAD – 1.0157

Recent wave:  Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and A-B-C correction has possibly ended at 1.0658

Trend:  Near term down

Original strategy : 

Sell at 1.0415, Target: 1.0250, Stop: 1.0475

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

New strategy  : 

Sell at 1.0250, Target: 1.0080, Stop: 1.0315

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.0363, the currency pair met heavy offers there and tumbled on broad-based weakness in the greenback, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.0524 as end of wave B and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards support at 1.10074-77. Looking ahead, a break of this level would signal wave C has commenced and extend weakness towards psychological support at 1.0000 which is likely to hold on first testing due to oversold condition.

In view of this, we are still looking to sell the greenback on recovery but at a lower level. Only above said intra-day high of 1.0363 would abort and signal the retreat from 1.0524 has ended instead and risk a stronger rebound to 1.0400 and possibly towards 1.0440-50 but price should falter well below said resistance at 1.0524, bring another selloff later.

To recap, early breach of 1.0108 signals the wave iv from 0.9931 has ended at 1.0854 or 1.0674 (with a short (c)), under this count, the wave v has commenced with minor wave (i) ended at 0.9980 and wave (ii) has possibly ended at 1.0287 with (a) at 1.0374, (b): 0.9977 and a short (c) at 1.0287, the breach of 0.9931 confirms wave (iii) is unfolding for weakness towards 0.9200-10 (50% projection of 1.0854-0.9446 measuring from 0.9914).