Elliott Wave Weekly |
Written by Action Forex |
Sep 19 13 09:20 GMT
EUR/GBP – 0.8435
EUR/GBP – The A leg of major correction from 0.9805 has ended at 0.8067, followed by (B) leg at 0.9084 and (C) leg fall has possibly ended at 0.7756
Although the single currency has rebounded after falling to 0.8353 yesterday, reckon upside would be limited to previous support at 0.8505 and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.8353 would signal the c leg of the wave 4 is still in progress for a stronger correction of recent upmove to 0.8300-10, however, still reckon 0.8287 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7961-0.8815) would limit downside and price should stay well above previous resistance at 0.8225 (lesser degree wave i top), bring another rally. Above previous support at 0.8505 would suggest low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.8550, then towards 0.8600, however, only break of resistance at 0.8651 would confirm and signal the fall from 0.8770 has ended, then further gain to 0.8700 would be seen but reckon resistance at 0.8730 would limit upside. We have labeled the move from 0.7756 as series of i ii, 1 2 and minor wave 3 has ended at 0.8815, followed by wave 4 which has ended at 0.8398 and wave 5 is underway for gain towards 0.8815, however, only break of this resistance would extend recent impulsive wave to previous chart resistance at 0.8831 and possibly to 0.8885-90 resistance.
On the daily chart, our preferred count is shown on the accompanied chart, the 5-waver from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as ether the entire wave (C) or the A leg of (C), the rally from there exceeded indicated upside target at 0.8780-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 0.9805-0.7756) and further gain to chart resistance at 0.8831, then 0.8885-90 would be seen, however, psychological resistance at 0.9000 should limit upside and reckon price would falter well below resistance at 0.9084.
Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as a 5-waver which marked either the (C) wave or the A leg of (C), a daily close above resistance at 0.8831 would suggest (C) leg has ended and headway towards 0.9084.
On the downside, only below support at 0.8225 would shift risk to downside and signal major top has been formed at 0.8815, bring a stronger retracement of early upmove to 0.8190--00 and later to 0.8150 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.8085-90 and bring another rebound later.
Recommendation: Buy again at 0.8310 for 0.8500 with stop below 0.8250.
Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.
We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and may extend weakness to 0.7700, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9143 would change this to be the preferred count.
About the Author
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500 GMT