Mar 01 19:51 GMT


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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis Print E-mail
Elliott Wave Weekly | Written by Action Forex | Sep 19 13 09:15 GMT
USD/CAD – 1.0193

USD/CAD – Wave v has possibly ended at 0.9407 and retracement to 1.0700 is seen

Current selloff together with the breach of previous support at 1.0245 dampened our bullishness and signal the wave c has indeed ended earlier at 1.0609, hence downside bias is seen for the decline from there to bring correction of early upmove to previous support at 1.0137, break there would add credence to this view and then further fall to 1.0090-00 would be seen, however, reckon support at 1.0014 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c and has possibly ended at 1.0609.  

On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated initial target at 1.0500 has been met and further gain to 1.0674 resistance would be seen later.

On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.0250 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited to 1.0300-10 and renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0350-60 and bring another decline later. Only above 1.0420 would suggest low is possibly formed and risk a stronger rebound to 1.0470-75 but break there is needed to confirm, then gain to 1.0510-20 would follow but price should falter below resistance at 1.0569, bring retreat later.

Recommendation: Sell at 1.0350 for 1.0150 with stop above 1.0450


Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.


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