Central Bank Views – Action Forex https://www.actionforex.com Live Forex Analysis, Currency Rates, Economic Calendar, Technical Forecast, Fundamental News, Free Trading Signals. Best. USD Dollar, EUR Euro, JPY Yen, GBP Pound, CHF Swiss Franc, CAD Canadian Dollar, AUD Australian Dollar, NZD New Zealand Dollar Mon, 10 Dec 2018 04:08:32 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 ECB Preview – Focus on Reinvestment Plan, New Round of TLTRO https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154849-ecb-preview-focus-on-reinvestment-plan-new-round-of-tltro/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154849-ecb-preview-focus-on-reinvestment-plan-new-round-of-tltro/#respond Wed, 05 Dec 2018 10:36:37 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=154849 The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new round of its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO). Given recent slowdown in GDP growth in the […]

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BOC Preview: Will Poloz Maintain Hawkish Stance? https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154514-boc-preview-will-poloz-maintain-hawkish-stance/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154514-boc-preview-will-poloz-maintain-hawkish-stance/#respond Tue, 04 Dec 2018 12:16:24 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=154514 Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, after a rate hike of +25 bps in October. Despite bets of another move this month, we believe policymakers would take a wait- and- see mode to assess the impact of the sharp fall of oil prices on Canada’s economy. Another focus […]

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RBA More Concerned about Housing Markets, Disinflation Likely Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged for 2019 https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154274-rba-more-concerned-about-housing-markets-disinflation-likely-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-for-2019/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/154274-rba-more-concerned-about-housing-markets-disinflation-likely-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-for-2019/#respond Tue, 04 Dec 2018 06:05:07 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=154274 As widely expected, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th consecutive meeting. The accompanying statement contained little new information. Yet, it revealed that the members were dovish about the housing market. Meanwhile, disinflation in Australian economy should likely lead the central bank to keep its monetary policy on hold for the […]

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FOMC Minutes Signals Rate Hike “Fairly Soon”, Policy Outlook Masked by Tariff and Debts https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/153263-fomc-minutes-signals-rate-hike-fairly-soon-policy-outlook-masked-by-tariff-and-debts/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/153263-fomc-minutes-signals-rate-hike-fairly-soon-policy-outlook-masked-by-tariff-and-debts/#respond Fri, 30 Nov 2018 03:35:43 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=153263 The FOMC minutes for the November revealed that the members still considered a rate hike in December is appropriate. Yet, they debated on the change in forward guidance regarding the pledge on “further gradual increases” in the policy rate. Some judged that the policy rate is near to the neutral level, while some suggested stressing […]

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Fed Chair Powell’s U-Turn on Interest Rates? https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/152896-powells-u-turn/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/152896-powells-u-turn/#respond Thu, 29 Nov 2018 04:08:31 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=152896 Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt turn on Powell’s stance. What the market focused on was Powell’s reference that “interest rates… remain […]

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ECB Might Keep Policy Rates Low for Longer, Given Downside Risk to Growth and Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/151212-ecb-might-keep-policy-rates-low-for-longer-given-downside-risk-to-growth-and-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/151212-ecb-might-keep-policy-rates-low-for-longer-given-downside-risk-to-growth-and-trade-war/#respond Fri, 23 Nov 2018 03:53:08 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=151212 ECB has tilted its tone on the economic outlook recently. In the minutes for the October meeting, ECB acknowledged “uncertainties and fragilities” in the economy. The members noted that risks to the economic outlook is skewed to the downside as driven by the uncertainties related to global trade. Yet, it reiterated the incoming data had […]

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Australia: Low Unemployment Rate Masks Underlying Problems in Job Market https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/150104-australia-low-unemployment-rate-masks-underlying-problems-in-job-market/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/150104-australia-low-unemployment-rate-masks-underlying-problems-in-job-market/#respond Tue, 20 Nov 2018 05:01:18 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=150104 RBA has sounded confident in the domestic growth outlook in both. On the job market, the members acknowledged the decline in unemployment rate and indicated the “notable” fall in youth unemployment. The central bank forecast that employment growth would be slightly above average in the period ahead, facilitated by the record high number of job […]

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Limited News from FOMC, December Rate Hike Hopes Unaltered https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/147143-limited-news-from-fomc-december-rate-hike-hopes-unaltered/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/147143-limited-news-from-fomc-december-rate-hike-hopes-unaltered/#respond Fri, 09 Nov 2018 03:43:24 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=147143 As widely anticipated, FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.00-2.25% at its November meeting. The changes in the accompanying statement were limited. This is not unusual as the November meeting is in between important ones in September and December. No press conference and updated economic projections and median dot […]

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RBNZ Affirmed the Next Move Can be Up Or Down, Despite Upbeat Data https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/146759-rbnz-affirmed-the-next-move-can-be-up-or-down-despite-upbeat-data/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/146759-rbnz-affirmed-the-next-move-can-be-up-or-down-despite-upbeat-data/#respond Thu, 08 Nov 2018 05:05:22 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=146759 RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% in November. The move had been widely anticipated. Despite recent strong dataflow, the central bank downplayed the improvements and Governor Adrian Orr affirmed that the next rate change can be up or down. Kiwi, which has jumped to the highest level in 3 months against US dollar after […]

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RBA Turns More Upbeat Over GDP Growth, Keeps Rates Unchanged amidst Low Inflation https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/146051-rba-turns-more-upbeat-over-gdp-growth-keeps-rates-unchanged-amidst-low-inflation/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/146051-rba-turns-more-upbeat-over-gdp-growth-keeps-rates-unchanged-amidst-low-inflation/#respond Tue, 06 Nov 2018 06:55:27 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=146051 The RBA meeting this month is a non-event. As widely anticipated, the members left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, for the 25th consecutive meeting. The members remained upbeat over the economic outlook, expecting the job market to strengthen further and wage growth to improve. The central bank left its assessment in the housing market […]

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FOMC Preview – Affirming a Strong Economic Case for December Rate Hike https://www.actionforex.com/featured/145736-fomc-preview-affirm-a-strong-economic-case-for-december-rate-hike/ https://www.actionforex.com/featured/145736-fomc-preview-affirm-a-strong-economic-case-for-december-rate-hike/#respond Mon, 05 Nov 2018 09:09:06 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=145736 The aim of the FOMC meeting later this week is to prepare the market for a December rate hike. While the recent stock market crash and slowdown in inflation have trimmed bet for a December rate hike to 77.5% from 80% a month ago, the macroeconomic environment is still supportive for such a move. We […]

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Hawkish Carney Signals Overheating Economy Could Accelerate BOE Rate Hikes https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/144957-hawkish-carney-signals-overheating-economy-could-accelerate-boe-rate-hikes/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/144957-hawkish-carney-signals-overheating-economy-could-accelerate-boe-rate-hikes/#respond Thu, 01 Nov 2018 13:58:29 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=144957 As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank sent a more hawkish-than-expected message to the market. While reiterating “gradual and limited” monetary stance, BOE […]

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ECB Reveals No Details about Reinvestment. December in Focus https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/142925-ecb-reveals-no-details-about-reinvestment-december-in-focus/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/142925-ecb-reveals-no-details-about-reinvestment-december-in-focus/#respond Thu, 25 Oct 2018 15:20:31 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=142925 ECB left it policy rates and the asset purchase program unchanged. The members remained confident over the economic outlook but acknowledges some risks, including protectionism and financial market volatility, that could derail the recovery path. As we had anticipated, ECB has kept the details of the reinvestment schedule after QE ends until December. The main […]

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BOC Review – Hiking Policy Rate to 1.75% with Hawkish Bias https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/142581-boc-review-hiking-policy-rate-to-1-75-with-hawkish-bias/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/142581-boc-review-hiking-policy-rate-to-1-75-with-hawkish-bias/#respond Thu, 25 Oct 2018 03:51:47 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=142581 The market was thrilled by BOC’s hawkish comments accompanying the widely-anticipated +25 bps rate hike. With the uncertainty of future trade relationship with the US reduced and economic growth on track, the members judged that it is prudent to move to “neutral” interest rate. Removal of the “gradual” rate hike reference, replacing by “need to […]

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ECB Likely More Cautious amid Soft Core Inflation and Italy. Reinvestment Details to be Revealed in December https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/141825-ecb-likely-more-cautious-amid-soft-core-inflation-and-italy-reinvestment-details-to-be-revealed-in-december/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/141825-ecb-likely-more-cautious-amid-soft-core-inflation-and-italy-reinvestment-details-to-be-revealed-in-december/#respond Tue, 23 Oct 2018 04:58:47 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=141825 We expect ECB to emphasize downside risk to growth in this week’s meeting on October 25. That would be a slight shift from the more hawkish stance at the last meeting six weeks ago. With the path of QE announced in June, the focus is on the reinvestment arrangement. Yet, we do not expect the […]

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BOC Preview – Rate Hike Fully Priced but Future Decision Still Data- Dependent https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/141647-boc-preview-rate-hike-fully-priced-but-future-decision-still-data-dependent/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/141647-boc-preview-rate-hike-fully-priced-but-future-decision-still-data-dependent/#respond Mon, 22 Oct 2018 09:30:52 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=141647 The market has fully priced in that BOC would raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.75% this week. With Canada-US trade uncertainty eased and the employment market staying strong, the focus is on whether policymakers would consider accelerating the pace of normalization. Notwithstanding a rosier picture, the members would at most be cautiously […]

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Fed’s September Minutes Explained the Rationale of Removing Forward Guidance, Showed More Concerns about USD Strength https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/140554-feds-september-minutes-explained-the-rationale-of-removing-forward-guidance-showed-more-concerns-about-usd-strength/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/140554-feds-september-minutes-explained-the-rationale-of-removing-forward-guidance-showed-more-concerns-about-usd-strength/#respond Thu, 18 Oct 2018 04:46:26 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=140554 The FOMC minutes for the September meeting contained little news regarding the rationale of the 25 bps rate hike last month, as well as the future path of monetary policy normalization. Yet, there are some points worth nothing. First, the minutes explain why the “accommodative” guidance was removed. Second, the Fed appeared more concerned about […]

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RBA Minutes – Content with Weak AUD but More Concerned about Credit Conditions https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/139778-rba-minutes-content-with-weak-aud-but-more-concerned-about-credit-conditions/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/139778-rba-minutes-content-with-weak-aud-but-more-concerned-about-credit-conditions/#respond Tue, 16 Oct 2018 03:53:22 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=139778 The RBA minutes for the October meeting reinforced its cautious stance on the monetary policy. With the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for 24 consecutive months, the members have seen no urgency to make adjustment. While affirming the next move would more likely a rise than a fall, there is no sign of action any […]

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FOMC Hiked Rate and Removed “Accommodative” Policy Reference https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/134359-fomc-hiked-rate-and-removed-accommodative-policy-reference/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/134359-fomc-hiked-rate-and-removed-accommodative-policy-reference/#respond Thu, 27 Sep 2018 03:34:46 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=134359 FOMC raised the Fed funds rate, by +25 bps, to 2-2.25% in September. While the accompanying statement was largely dubbed from the previous meeting, the market has viewed the removal of the “accommodative” policy language has slightly dovish. This is evidenced in the instant drop of Treasury yields and US dollar’s weakness against the euro. […]

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BOE Preview- Upbeat about Recent Economic Developments, but Cautious over Brexit https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/129675-boe-preview-upbeat-about-recent-economic-developments-but-cautious-over-brexit/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/129675-boe-preview-upbeat-about-recent-economic-developments-but-cautious-over-brexit/#respond Tue, 11 Sep 2018 13:58:22 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=129675 Following the August rate hike, BOE would likely keeps its powder dry at least until the Brexit Withdrawal deal is finalized. Macroeconomic indicators released since the last meeting contain both upside and downside surprises. Yet, the overall developments should keep BOE’s policy path, rate hike at “a gradual pace and to a limited extent”, intact. […]

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