Mon, Jul 22, 2019 @ 00:07 GMT
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. What caused the market dramatic market movement was its dovish turn – stripping off the forward guidance that the next move would be a rate hike. The abrupt turn in just...
As widely anticipated, RBA left the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in March. A cooling property market signals that further rate hike is less urgent. On top of the central bank’s agenda has returned to boosting inflation and employment....
Talks of ECB's tapering have been looming of late, thanks to Eurozone's improving economic developments, especially in Germany, adverse effects of negative deposit rates on financial institutions, bigger-than-expected targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROSs) take-up last week, as well as the asset buying program's ongoing deviation from its capital key. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has been vocal about less expansionary policy and a review to the forward guidance, while other members of the Governor Council reiterated the need to maintain accommodative measures to boost inflation.
In its quarterly meeting, SNB announced to leave the policy rate – the interest rate on sight deposits, unchanged at -0.75%. On a technical change, the central bank introduced a new benchmark – the SNB policy rate- in replacement...
As expected, BOC left its overnight rate unchanged at 0.5% in January. Yet, it delivered a more dovish than expected message and sent CAD to a one-week low against USD. At the press conference, Governor Stephen Poloz revealed that 'Governing Council was particularly concerned about the ramifications of U.S. trade policy, because it is so fundamental to the Canadian economy'. He suggested that further rate cut cannot be ruled out of US' protectionist policy puts BOC's inflation target at risk.
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting unveiled that members were divided over the timing of balance sheet reduction while there was also discussion over the recent inflation weakness. At the meeting, the Fed raised its policy rate, by +25 bps, to a target range of 1-1.25%.Given the fact that the economic and medium-term inflation outlooks was largely unchanged since May, members generally judged that it was appropriate to adopt the continued removal of monetary policy accommodation. The rate hike decision was not unanimous.
Of the three major European central banks held monetary meeting on Thursday, all left their policy rates unchanged. Moreover, all pointed to higher uncertainty in the global economic outlook. BOE kept its Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25%. The sizes of government and corporate bond purchases also stayed unchanged at435B pound and up to 10b pound, respectively, in December. Policymakers warned that the recent strength in sterling might cool inflation in the medium-term. SNB held deposit rate steady at -0.75%, while Norges bank left kept its deposit rate steady at 0.5%.
At the December meeting, ECB formally announced that the asset purchase program (QE) would end by this month. In order to maintain the size of the balance sheet at the current 2.6 trillion euro, the central bank would reinvest...
The RBA minutes for the November minutes delivered a dovish tone as policymakers expressed concerns over the wage growth outlook. This is consistent with the central bank's worry over household spending as indicated in the meeting statement (released earlier this month). We believe this has added further pressure to Aussie's recent weakness, sending AUDUSD to the lowest level in 5 months. The central bank kept its powder, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, in November. We expect the monetary policy would stay unchanged at least until 1H18 and could extend to 2H18.
The July FOMC meeting came in as widely anticipated. The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target at 1-1.25%. The Fed made two tweak in the statement, though. First, it noted that balance sheet reduction would begin 'relatively soon', signaling that the official announcement would come in September. Second, policymakers revised lower the outlook on core inflation. US dollar plunged, with the weighted index falling to a 13-month low as the market interpreted the inflation assessment as dovish.
Contrary to the market which has been pricing in a rate cut later this year, the Fed affirmed in the minutes for the March meeting that the members’ consensus was no change in the monetary policy for the rest...
Recent upbeat macroeconomic data has lifted speculations for a BOC rate hike in September. Yet, we do not expect the developments since the last meeting should change the central bank’s gradual normalization policy. Policymakers should bear in mind the...
We expect the ECB to deliver a more dovish message in June. We expect to see changes in the forward guidance. ECB would also announce the technical details of TLTRO-III. The economic projections would probably similar to the previous...
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday and maintained a neutral tone. Policymakers turned more cautious about the impact of trade tensions on economic activities and noted that global interest rates have been lower over the past...
BOJ again voted 8-1 to leave the monetary policies unchanged in October. The targets for short- and long-term interest rates stay at -0.1% and around 0%, respectively while the guideline for JGB purchases remains at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Again, BOJ revised lower its inflation forecasts for FY 2017 and FY 2018 but maintained that for FY 2019. The central bank upgraded the GDP growth outlook for FY 2017 while leaving others unadjusted. The new member was the lone dissent as he voted against the yield curve control measure for two meetings in a row. He judged that 'monetary easing effects gained from the current yield curve were not enough for 2% inflation to be achieved around fiscal 2019'. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda defended the yield curve control policy and the +2% target. As he suggested, the 'main objective is to achieve 2% inflation and stably maintain price growth at that level. There's no change to our view that monetary policy must be guided to achieve this objective' and there is no need to change the yield targets'.
RBA's minutes for the August meeting revealed that policymakers were optimistic over the global and domestic economies. However, they reiterated the warning of the strength of Australian dollar, noting that its appreciation would curb growth and inflation over time. The central bank signaled concerns over the housing market and household debt, while appeared more comfortable over the employment situation. AUDUSD recovered after the release of the minutes.
As we expected, RBNZ has turned more dovish in March. A more pessimistic view about the domestic and global economic outlook has led members to adjust their forward guidance on the monetary policy stance. The members now expect to...
BOE voted 7-2 to leave the Bank rate at 0.50%. The members voted unanimously to leave to asset purchase program unchanged at 435B pound. The members were generally positive over the economic outlook, noting that "recent data releases are...
At the BOC meeting next week, we expect Governor Stephen Poloz to reinstate the stance that the next policy rate move would be data-dependent. The latest inflation report surprised to the upside. Yet, the central bank would likely look...
While mainly maintaining the FOMC's stance, the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony before the House Finance Services Committee was interpreted as a hawkish one. Heightened speculations for three, or more, rate hikes this year were reflected...
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