China Watch – Action Forex https://www.actionforex.com Live Forex Analysis, Currency Rates, Economic Calendar, Technical Forecast, Fundamental News, Free Trading Signals. Best. USD Dollar, EUR Euro, JPY Yen, GBP Pound, CHF Swiss Franc, CAD Canadian Dollar, AUD Australian Dollar, NZD New Zealand Dollar Mon, 16 Sep 2019 13:45:02 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.2.3 China Watch – Economy Going from Bad to Worse https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/233902-china-watch-economy-going-from-bad-to-worse/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/233902-china-watch-economy-going-from-bad-to-worse/#respond Mon, 16 Sep 2019 11:21:21 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=233902 China’s macroeconomic indicators showed significant weakness across the board. Industrial production gained +4.4% y/y in August, easing from +4.8% in the prior month. The growth rate came in weaker than consensus of +5.2% and marks the slowest in over 17 years. The rapid slowdown was partly driven by the cutback of production ahead of October […]

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China Watch – Tariff Exemption Further Evidenced Weakness in Underlying Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/232734-china-watch-tariff-exemption-further-evidenced-weakness-in-underlying-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/232734-china-watch-tariff-exemption-further-evidenced-weakness-in-underlying-economy/#respond Thu, 12 Sep 2019 04:11:56 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=232734 China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade data surprised to the downside in August with both exports and imports coming in weaker than […]

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China Cuts Banks’ Lending Rates as Trade War Escalates https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/228193-china-cuts-banks-lending-rates-as-trade-war-escalates/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/228193-china-cuts-banks-lending-rates-as-trade-war-escalates/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2019 07:44:27 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=228193 PBOC has recently made some changes in its interest rate policy. Following the move to link the loan prime rate (LPR) to open market operations, the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the central bank over the weekend announced the plan to set a floor for mortgage rate. The first change essentially lowers banks’ lending rates […]

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Chinese Data Surprised to Downside in July. Tariff Delay Won’t Help Arrest Slowdown https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/224892-chinese-data-surprised-to-downside-in-july-tariff-delay-wont-help-arrest-slowdown/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/224892-chinese-data-surprised-to-downside-in-july-tariff-delay-wont-help-arrest-slowdown/#respond Wed, 14 Aug 2019 08:13:09 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=224892 China’s economic data surprised to the downside in July. Delay in US tariff should have limited boost on China’s growth outlook. Industrial production gained +4.8% y/y in July, missing consensus of +5.8% and June’s 6.3%. The slowdown is the most severe since February 2009 and caught the market in surprise. Manufacturing PMIs compiled by government […]

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China PPI Returns to Deflation, PBOC Probably Cuts Rate in September https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/223575-chinas-ppi-returned-to-deflation-pboc-probably-cuts-rate-in-september/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/223575-chinas-ppi-returned-to-deflation-pboc-probably-cuts-rate-in-september/#respond Fri, 09 Aug 2019 04:46:09 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=223575 Headline CPI in China accelerated to +2.8% y/y in July, from +2.7% a month ago. Same as previous months, the key driver of inflation was food prices, which jumped +9.1% y/y in July. In June, food prices also rose +8.3% y/y. Of which, pork prices soared +27% y/y and fresh fruit prices skyrocketed +39.1%. Non-food […]

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Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End. https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216228-chinese-economy-weakest-in-almost-three-decades-growth-could-fall-below-6-by-year-end/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216228-chinese-economy-weakest-in-almost-three-decades-growth-could-fall-below-6-by-year-end/#respond Mon, 15 Jul 2019 06:27:11 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=216228 GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter’s +6.9%. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded +6.3%. Growth in the second quarter was […]

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China’s Strong Trade Surplus Driven by Contraction in Imports. Strong Inflation Unlikely Restrains Further Easing https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216115-chinas-strong-trade-surplus-driven-by-contraction-in-imports-strong-inflation-unlikely-restrains-further-easing/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216115-chinas-strong-trade-surplus-driven-by-contraction-in-imports-strong-inflation-unlikely-restrains-further-easing/#respond Sat, 13 Jul 2019 11:50:27 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=216115 China headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.7% y/y in June. Most of the increase was driven by food price. While African swine fever has caused pork price to soar, extreme weather affected harvest, sending fruit price higher. Food price jumped +7.7% in May from a year ago. Excluding food prices, CPI gained +1.7%. Core inflation […]

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China’s Economic Data Prove Economy Slowing Down. PBOC Could Follow FOMC in Cutting Interest Rate https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/207667-chinas-economic-data-prove-economy-slowing-down-pboc-could-follow-fomc-in-cutting-interest-rate/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/207667-chinas-economic-data-prove-economy-slowing-down-pboc-could-follow-fomc-in-cutting-interest-rate/#respond Fri, 14 Jun 2019 13:43:41 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=207667 Despite the mixed headline readings, China’s macroeconomic data in May were in line with our view that the country’s economy continues to slow. Growth in industrial production fell to 5% y/y, missing consensus of , and April’s, 5.4%. IP growth in May marks the lowest growth since 2002. Moreover, this signals a significant decline from […]

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Closer Look at China’s Trade Data Reveals that Trade War is Eating Into Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/206275-closer-look-as-china-trade-data-suggests-trade-war-is-eating-into-chinese-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/206275-closer-look-as-china-trade-data-suggests-trade-war-is-eating-into-chinese-economy/#respond Tue, 11 Jun 2019 06:11:51 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=206275 The US-China trade war continues to evolve. The upcoming important event would be the G-20 summit on June 28 and 29. US’ Donald Trump has recently noted that he expects to meet China’s Xi Jinping, or would impose 25% tariff on the rest of US$300B Chinese exports. The latest trade report from China appears unaffected […]

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Threat of Dumping US Treasury Signals China is Running Out of Weapons in Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/203957-threat-of-dumping-us-treasury-signals-china-is-running-out-of-weapons-in-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/203957-threat-of-dumping-us-treasury-signals-china-is-running-out-of-weapons-in-trade-war/#respond Mon, 03 Jun 2019 09:59:16 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=203957 China’s White Paper, entitled “China’s Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations” on recent escalations of trade war has weighed on the fragile market. While the majority of market participants judges that China has opted for a hardliner approach, interpretations of the outcomes are diverse. While some judge that the deadlock would be dragged […]

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China’s Slowdown Resumes as Seasonal Effects Faded https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/198607-chinas-slowdown-resumes-as-seasonal-effects-faded/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/198607-chinas-slowdown-resumes-as-seasonal-effects-faded/#respond Wed, 15 May 2019 08:29:59 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=198607 Economic data in April prove that China’s economy is not yet out of the wood. Growth in industrial production , retail sales and fixed asset investment all surprised to downside, suggesting that the rebound in March was only due to one-off, temporary factors. Re-escalation of US-China trade war is expected to further hurt economic sentiment […]

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Decline in Chinese Exports Signals Global Demand Slowdown. Renewed Trade War Forces PBOC to Ease Further https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/196421-decline-in-chinese-exports-signals-global-demand-slowdown-renewed-trade-war-forces-pboc-to-ease-further/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/196421-decline-in-chinese-exports-signals-global-demand-slowdown-renewed-trade-war-forces-pboc-to-ease-further/#respond Wed, 08 May 2019 07:27:13 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=196421 Disappointing trade data in China was mainly driven by the large contraction in exports. Instead of merely bilateral trade conflict between the US and China, the broadly based slowdown in exports to China’s major trading partners indicates that global demand is weakening again. Donald Trump’s threat of raising tariff on US$ 200B of Chinese exports […]

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China First Quarter GDP Growth Beat Expectations. Key Macro Data Rebounded in March, albeit from Low Base https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/190835-first-quarter-gdp-growth-beat-expectations-key-macro-data-rebounded-in-march-albeit-from-low-base/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/190835-first-quarter-gdp-growth-beat-expectations-key-macro-data-rebounded-in-march-albeit-from-low-base/#respond Wed, 17 Apr 2019 05:11:26 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=190835 China’s GDP expanded +6.4% y/y in 1Q19, same pace as 4Q18 but beating consensus of +6.3%. Major macroeconomic data showed strong rebound in March and exceeded expectations. Over the past weeks, data flow in China has already signaled improvement in China’s economy: Both headline CPI and PPI markedly recovered in March while incremental credit reached […]

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China: Renminbi Internationalization Remains Sluggish https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186742-china-renminbi-internationalization-remains-sluggish/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186742-china-renminbi-internationalization-remains-sluggish/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2019 05:40:45 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=186742 Renminbi internationalization The IMF’s latest report reveals that the process of renminbi internationalization remains sluggish as renminbi (Chinese Yuan) is still a tiny portion of global central banks’s FX reserve. In 4Q18, 1.89% global FX reserve was allocated to renminbi , compared with 1.07% in 4Q16, when the currency was first admitted to the Special […]

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China: March PMIs Show Improvement in Economic Activities https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186723-china-march-pmis-show-improvement-in-economic-activities/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186723-china-march-pmis-show-improvement-in-economic-activities/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2019 05:22:48 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=186723 Markit/Caixin’s PMI report shows recovery in China’s economy in March. The composite output index rose to 52.9 in March, from 50.7 in the prior month. This marks the highest level since June 2018. While the manufacturing sector returned to the expansionary territory, services activities also showed stronger growth. It is likely that GDP growth in […]

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Slowdown in China Remains Pronounced Even After Adjusting for Seasonal Factors https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/180994-slowdown-in-china-remains-pronounced-even-after-adjusting-for-seasonal-factors/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/180994-slowdown-in-china-remains-pronounced-even-after-adjusting-for-seasonal-factors/#respond Thu, 14 Mar 2019 05:20:44 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=180994 China released its latest macroeconomic data for the first two months of the year. Due to Lunar New Year holiday, the January figures for retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment were not released. Despite signs of improvement, the set of data, together with inflation and trade reports released last week, affirmed slowdown in […]

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China’s February PMI Sent Mixed Message. Update on PBOC’s New Tool to Stimulate Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/177369-chinas-february-pmi-sent-mixed-message-update-on-pbocs-new-tool-to-stimulate-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/177369-chinas-february-pmi-sent-mixed-message-update-on-pbocs-new-tool-to-stimulate-economy/#respond Fri, 01 Mar 2019 03:49:34 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=177369 The official manufacturing PMI data, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, slipped -0.3 point to 49.2 in February. The market had anticipated no change from the prior month. This shows that large corporations in the sector, staying in contraction for three months in a row, has been in the worst condition since February 2016. […]

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China’s Monetary Easing to Continue after End of Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/176200-chinas-monetary-easing-to-continue-after-end-of-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/176200-chinas-monetary-easing-to-continue-after-end-of-trade-war/#respond Tue, 26 Feb 2019 05:35:45 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=176200 Market sentiment improves further as Trump sent more hints on trade truce extension and “substantial progress” on striking a trade deal with China. Indeed, his indication that a deal on “currency manipulation” has send renminbi (Chinese yuan) to the 7-month high against the US dollar. Meanwhile, China January money/ credit report has shown signs of […]

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China’s Inflation Weakened Sharply. Trade Improvement Masked by Seasonal Factor https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/173392-seasonal-factor-masked-economic-weakness-in-china/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/173392-seasonal-factor-masked-economic-weakness-in-china/#respond Fri, 15 Feb 2019 07:42:34 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=173392 Headline CPI eased to +1.7% y/y in January, missing consensus of and December’s +1.9%. The slowdown was mainly driven by food price which fell -0.6 percentage point to +1.9%. Non-food inflation steadied at +1.7%. PPI decelerated sharply to +0.1% y/y, from +0.9% a month ago. The market had already anticipated a significant slowdown of +0.2% […]

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Chinese Economy Shows Signs of Stabilization in Late 2018. More Challenge Ahead https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/166310-chinese-economy-shows-signs-in-stabilization-in-late-2018-more-challenge-ahead/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/166310-chinese-economy-shows-signs-in-stabilization-in-late-2018-more-challenge-ahead/#respond Mon, 21 Jan 2019 09:55:38 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=166310 The latest set of macroeconomic data for China shows signs of stabilization. This could be attributed to the government’s expansionary policies both monetarily and fiscally. While the government is expected to add more stimuli this year, the challenge remains tough. GDP growth eased to +6.4% y/y in 4Q18, from +6.5% a quarter ago. Year-over-year growth […]

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