China Watch – Action Forex https://www.actionforex.com Live Forex Analysis, Currency Rates, Economic Calendar, Technical Forecast, Fundamental News, Free Trading Signals. Best. USD Dollar, EUR Euro, JPY Yen, GBP Pound, CHF Swiss Franc, CAD Canadian Dollar, AUD Australian Dollar, NZD New Zealand Dollar Mon, 10 Feb 2020 12:10:22 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.3.2 Soaring Inflation Makes PBOC’s Easing Measures More Challenging https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/270607-soaring-inflation-makes-pbocs-easing-measures-more-challenging/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/270607-soaring-inflation-makes-pbocs-easing-measures-more-challenging/#respond Mon, 10 Feb 2020 07:04:56 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=270607 Headline inflation in China soared to +5.4% y/y, the highest level in almost a decade, in January. This came in higher than consensus of +4.9% and December’s +4.5%. Once again food, especially pork, price was the key driver of the jump. Food price soared +20.6% y/y, accelerating from +17.4% in December. Pork price rose +116% […]

The post Soaring Inflation Makes PBOC’s Easing Measures More Challenging appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/270607-soaring-inflation-makes-pbocs-easing-measures-more-challenging/feed/ 0
More Rate Cuts Expected as Novel Coronavirus Hurt China’s Economy Severely https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/269849-more-rate-cuts-expected-as-novel-coronavirus-hurt-chinas-economy-severely/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/269849-more-rate-cuts-expected-as-novel-coronavirus-hurt-chinas-economy-severely/#respond Thu, 06 Feb 2020 05:41:59 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=269849 Earlier this week PBOC announced monetary easing measures to support the economy, in light of the severity of the novel coronavirus. Concerning the latest move, PBOC announced to cut the 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate, each by -10 bps, to 2.4% and 2.55% respectively. The -10 bps reduction was more than the central bank’s […]

The post More Rate Cuts Expected as Novel Coronavirus Hurt China’s Economy Severely appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/269849-more-rate-cuts-expected-as-novel-coronavirus-hurt-chinas-economy-severely/feed/ 0
US-China Phase I Trade Deal Signed, Execution & Phase II Negotiations the Next Focus https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/264307-us-china-phase-i-trade-deal-signed-execution-phase-ii-negotiations-the-next-focus/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/264307-us-china-phase-i-trade-deal-signed-execution-phase-ii-negotiations-the-next-focus/#respond Thu, 16 Jan 2020 05:33:05 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=264307 Signing of the Phase I trade deal marks an end of the beginning the trade war between the US and China. While the deal covers various areas of great concerns to the US, including China’s imports of US goods and services, China’s handling of intellectual properties, technological transfer and the financial services industry, and renminbi […]

The post US-China Phase I Trade Deal Signed, Execution & Phase II Negotiations the Next Focus appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/264307-us-china-phase-i-trade-deal-signed-execution-phase-ii-negotiations-the-next-focus/feed/ 0
Low Base and Frontloading Drove China’s Trade Higher in December https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/263717-low-base-and-frontloading-drove-chinas-trade-higher-in-december/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/263717-low-base-and-frontloading-drove-chinas-trade-higher-in-december/#respond Tue, 14 Jan 2020 08:15:52 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=263717 China’s foreign trade surprised to the upside in December. Exports rose +7.6% y/y in the last month of 2019, compared with consensus of +2.9%. Meanwhile, imports jumped +13.6% y/y, beating expectations of +9.6%. Both outbound and inbound shipment improved in December from a month ago. Exports in November contracted -1.9% y/y, while imports edged +0.3% […]

The post Low Base and Frontloading Drove China’s Trade Higher in December appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/263717-low-base-and-frontloading-drove-chinas-trade-higher-in-december/feed/ 0
Trade War Continues to Direct Outlook of USDCNY in 2020 https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/260740-trade-war-continues-to-direct-outlook-of-usdcny-in-2020/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/260740-trade-war-continues-to-direct-outlook-of-usdcny-in-2020/#respond Thu, 02 Jan 2020 09:40:17 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=260740 As in last year, Chinese Yuan will remain directed by the US-China trade war in 2020. Although China’s economy continues to struggle and PBOC’s monetary policy is tilted to the accommodative side, CNY should stabilize against USD if trade negotiations are smooth. Elevated inflation should keep PBOC cautious in adopting monetary easing. As such, fiscal […]

The post Trade War Continues to Direct Outlook of USDCNY in 2020 appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/260740-trade-war-continues-to-direct-outlook-of-usdcny-in-2020/feed/ 0
Trade Deal and Strong November Data will Not Derail PBOC’s Easing Bias https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/258705-trade-deal-and-strong-november-data-will-not-derail-pbocs-easing-bias/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/258705-trade-deal-and-strong-november-data-will-not-derail-pbocs-easing-bias/#respond Wed, 18 Dec 2019 05:31:07 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=258705 A number of good news has increased optimism over China. Following announcement of a Phase I trade deal with the US, the latest set of economic data surprised to the upside in November. However, we expect the bullishness will be short-lived. For the year ahead, the government will have to continue stimulating the economy via […]

The post Trade Deal and Strong November Data will Not Derail PBOC’s Easing Bias appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/258705-trade-deal-and-strong-november-data-will-not-derail-pbocs-easing-bias/feed/ 0
China’s CPI Soared to +4.5%; Exports Contracted More than Expected https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/256459-chinas-cpi-soared-to-4-5-exports-contracted-more-than-expected/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/256459-chinas-cpi-soared-to-4-5-exports-contracted-more-than-expected/#respond Tue, 10 Dec 2019 03:40:20 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=256459 Headline CPI in China accelerated to +4.5% y/y in November, from +3.8% a month ago. The key contributor to strong inflation is fresh vegetable and pork prices. Non-food price climbed +1% y/y from +0.9% in October. Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation steadied at +1.4% y/y. Upstream PPI contracted -1.4%, improving from -1.6% in […]

The post China’s CPI Soared to +4.5%; Exports Contracted More than Expected appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/256459-chinas-cpi-soared-to-4-5-exports-contracted-more-than-expected/feed/ 0
Strong Manufacturing PMI Sent Hope of Stabilization in Chinese Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/254285-strong-manufacturing-pmi-sent-hope-of-stabilization-in-chinese-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/254285-strong-manufacturing-pmi-sent-hope-of-stabilization-in-chinese-economy/#respond Mon, 02 Dec 2019 04:39:27 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=254285 Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) suggested that the manufacturing China improved in November. Improvement in manufacturing PMIs signaled that upcoming industrial production data can surprise to the upside. The official PMI improved +0.9 point to 50.2 in November. This marks the first expansion (above 50) since March and the second largest reading in the year. The […]

The post Strong Manufacturing PMI Sent Hope of Stabilization in Chinese Economy appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/254285-strong-manufacturing-pmi-sent-hope-of-stabilization-in-chinese-economy/feed/ 0
PBOC to Ease Monetary Policy Further Despite Strong Inflation https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/252838-pboc-to-ease-monetary-policy-further-despite-strong-inflation/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/252838-pboc-to-ease-monetary-policy-further-despite-strong-inflation/#respond Tue, 26 Nov 2019 04:16:58 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=252838 We expect China’s monetary policy will be more expansionary in coming months as the economy slows further. Struggling between boosting growth and curbing CPI acceleration, the authority has probably chosen the former. Meanwhile, PBOC is obliged to do more as fiscal stimulus remains modest. PBOC has lowered interest rates three times this month. Last week […]

The post PBOC to Ease Monetary Policy Further Despite Strong Inflation appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/252838-pboc-to-ease-monetary-policy-further-despite-strong-inflation/feed/ 0
China Data Reveal Further Downside Risks in Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/249871-china-data-reveal-further-downside-risks-in-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/249871-china-data-reveal-further-downside-risks-in-economy/#respond Thu, 14 Nov 2019 04:35:33 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=249871 China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September. Part of the reasons can be deferred spending ahead of the Double 11 festival in China. […]

The post China Data Reveal Further Downside Risks in Economy appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/249871-china-data-reveal-further-downside-risks-in-economy/feed/ 0
China’s CPI Soared to Highest Level in Almost 8 Years; Exports Improved on Tariff Exemption https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/248797-chinas-cpi-soared-to-highest-level-in-almost-8-years-exports-improved-on-tariff-exemption/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/248797-chinas-cpi-soared-to-highest-level-in-almost-8-years-exports-improved-on-tariff-exemption/#respond Sun, 10 Nov 2019 14:57:45 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=248797 Headline CPI in China accelerated further to +3.8% y/y in October. This had exceeded consensus of +3.4% and breached the 3% target for the first time since 2013. Food price, in particular pork price, was again the key driver for the strong inflation. Food inflation soared +15.5% y/y, compared with +11.2% in September. Pork price […]

The post China’s CPI Soared to Highest Level in Almost 8 Years; Exports Improved on Tariff Exemption appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/248797-chinas-cpi-soared-to-highest-level-in-almost-8-years-exports-improved-on-tariff-exemption/feed/ 0
PBOC Cut 1-Year Lending Rate for the First Time since 2016 https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/247424-pboc-cut-1-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-2016/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/247424-pboc-cut-1-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-2016/#respond Tue, 05 Nov 2019 07:29:12 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=247424 For the first time in over 3 years, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers the rate of the 1-year medium lending facility (MLF) by -5 bps to 3.25%. This surprising move underlines the rapid deterioration of domestic growth and paves the way for a cut in the loan prime rate (LRP), the current main policy […]

The post PBOC Cut 1-Year Lending Rate for the First Time since 2016 appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/247424-pboc-cut-1-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-2016/feed/ 0
China Watch – PBOC Paused Rate Reduction in October. RRR Cut Still Likely as Growth Continues to Slow https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/243955-china-watch-pboc-paused-rate-reduction-in-october-rrr-cut-still-likely-as-growth-continues-to-slow/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/243955-china-watch-pboc-paused-rate-reduction-in-october-rrr-cut-still-likely-as-growth-continues-to-slow/#respond Wed, 23 Oct 2019 06:25:03 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=243955 The market was surprised to see that PBOC left the loan prime rate (LPR), its latest benchmark rate, unchanged in October following two consecutive cuts in the prior two months. Yet, this came in line with our expectations that elevation inflation could retrain PBOC from extending monetary easing. Recall that on August 17, PBOC announced […]

The post China Watch – PBOC Paused Rate Reduction in October. RRR Cut Still Likely as Growth Continues to Slow appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/243955-china-watch-pboc-paused-rate-reduction-in-october-rrr-cut-still-likely-as-growth-continues-to-slow/feed/ 0
Strong Inflation Could Affect PBOC’s Policy to Stimulate Growth; Trade Data Suggests China Continues to Suffer from Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/241693-strong-inflation-could-affect-pbocs-policy-to-stimulate-growth-trade-data-suggests-china-continues-to-suffer-from-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/241693-strong-inflation-could-affect-pbocs-policy-to-stimulate-growth-trade-data-suggests-china-continues-to-suffer-from-trade-war/#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2019 08:15:21 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=241693 Headline CPI in China rose to +3% y/y in September, reaching PBOC’s target for first time since December 2013. However, this was driven by elevated pork price rather than improvement in household spending. Food price jumped +11.2%, accelerating from +10% in August. This was predominantly driven by pork price which soared +69.3% y/y in September. […]

The post Strong Inflation Could Affect PBOC’s Policy to Stimulate Growth; Trade Data Suggests China Continues to Suffer from Trade War appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/241693-strong-inflation-could-affect-pbocs-policy-to-stimulate-growth-trade-data-suggests-china-continues-to-suffer-from-trade-war/feed/ 0
China Watch – Economy Going from Bad to Worse https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/233902-china-watch-economy-going-from-bad-to-worse/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/233902-china-watch-economy-going-from-bad-to-worse/#respond Mon, 16 Sep 2019 11:21:21 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=233902 China’s macroeconomic indicators showed significant weakness across the board. Industrial production gained +4.4% y/y in August, easing from +4.8% in the prior month. The growth rate came in weaker than consensus of +5.2% and marks the slowest in over 17 years. The rapid slowdown was partly driven by the cutback of production ahead of October […]

The post China Watch – Economy Going from Bad to Worse appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/233902-china-watch-economy-going-from-bad-to-worse/feed/ 0
China Watch – Tariff Exemption Further Evidenced Weakness in Underlying Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/232734-china-watch-tariff-exemption-further-evidenced-weakness-in-underlying-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/232734-china-watch-tariff-exemption-further-evidenced-weakness-in-underlying-economy/#respond Thu, 12 Sep 2019 04:11:56 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=232734 China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade data surprised to the downside in August with both exports and imports coming in weaker than […]

The post China Watch – Tariff Exemption Further Evidenced Weakness in Underlying Economy appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/232734-china-watch-tariff-exemption-further-evidenced-weakness-in-underlying-economy/feed/ 0
China Cuts Banks’ Lending Rates as Trade War Escalates https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/228193-china-cuts-banks-lending-rates-as-trade-war-escalates/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/228193-china-cuts-banks-lending-rates-as-trade-war-escalates/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2019 07:44:27 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=228193 PBOC has recently made some changes in its interest rate policy. Following the move to link the loan prime rate (LPR) to open market operations, the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the central bank over the weekend announced the plan to set a floor for mortgage rate. The first change essentially lowers banks’ lending rates […]

The post China Cuts Banks’ Lending Rates as Trade War Escalates appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/228193-china-cuts-banks-lending-rates-as-trade-war-escalates/feed/ 0
Chinese Data Surprised to Downside in July. Tariff Delay Won’t Help Arrest Slowdown https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/224892-chinese-data-surprised-to-downside-in-july-tariff-delay-wont-help-arrest-slowdown/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/224892-chinese-data-surprised-to-downside-in-july-tariff-delay-wont-help-arrest-slowdown/#respond Wed, 14 Aug 2019 08:13:09 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=224892 China’s economic data surprised to the downside in July. Delay in US tariff should have limited boost on China’s growth outlook. Industrial production gained +4.8% y/y in July, missing consensus of +5.8% and June’s 6.3%. The slowdown is the most severe since February 2009 and caught the market in surprise. Manufacturing PMIs compiled by government […]

The post Chinese Data Surprised to Downside in July. Tariff Delay Won’t Help Arrest Slowdown appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/224892-chinese-data-surprised-to-downside-in-july-tariff-delay-wont-help-arrest-slowdown/feed/ 0
China PPI Returns to Deflation, PBOC Probably Cuts Rate in September https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/223575-chinas-ppi-returned-to-deflation-pboc-probably-cuts-rate-in-september/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/223575-chinas-ppi-returned-to-deflation-pboc-probably-cuts-rate-in-september/#respond Fri, 09 Aug 2019 04:46:09 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=223575 Headline CPI in China accelerated to +2.8% y/y in July, from +2.7% a month ago. Same as previous months, the key driver of inflation was food prices, which jumped +9.1% y/y in July. In June, food prices also rose +8.3% y/y. Of which, pork prices soared +27% y/y and fresh fruit prices skyrocketed +39.1%. Non-food […]

The post China PPI Returns to Deflation, PBOC Probably Cuts Rate in September appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/223575-chinas-ppi-returned-to-deflation-pboc-probably-cuts-rate-in-september/feed/ 0
Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End. https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216228-chinese-economy-weakest-in-almost-three-decades-growth-could-fall-below-6-by-year-end/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216228-chinese-economy-weakest-in-almost-three-decades-growth-could-fall-below-6-by-year-end/#respond Mon, 15 Jul 2019 06:27:11 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=216228 GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter’s +6.9%. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded +6.3%. Growth in the second quarter was […]

The post Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End. appeared first on Action Forex.

]]>
https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/216228-chinese-economy-weakest-in-almost-three-decades-growth-could-fall-below-6-by-year-end/feed/ 0