China Watch – Action Forex https://www.actionforex.com Live Forex Analysis, Currency Rates, Economic Calendar, Technical Forecast, Fundamental News, Free Trading Signals. Best. USD Dollar, EUR Euro, JPY Yen, GBP Pound, CHF Swiss Franc, CAD Canadian Dollar, AUD Australian Dollar, NZD New Zealand Dollar Thu, 25 Apr 2019 03:55:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.1.1 China First Quarter GDP Growth Beat Expectations. Key Macro Data Rebounded in March, albeit from Low Base https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/190835-first-quarter-gdp-growth-beat-expectations-key-macro-data-rebounded-in-march-albeit-from-low-base/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/190835-first-quarter-gdp-growth-beat-expectations-key-macro-data-rebounded-in-march-albeit-from-low-base/#respond Wed, 17 Apr 2019 05:11:26 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=190835 China’s GDP expanded +6.4% y/y in 1Q19, same pace as 4Q18 but beating consensus of +6.3%. Major macroeconomic data showed strong rebound in March and exceeded expectations. Over the past weeks, data flow in China has already signaled improvement in China’s economy: Both headline CPI and PPI markedly recovered in March while incremental credit reached […]

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China: Renminbi Internationalization Remains Sluggish https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186742-china-renminbi-internationalization-remains-sluggish/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186742-china-renminbi-internationalization-remains-sluggish/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2019 05:40:45 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=186742 Renminbi internationalization The IMF’s latest report reveals that the process of renminbi internationalization remains sluggish as renminbi (Chinese Yuan) is still a tiny portion of global central banks’s FX reserve. In 4Q18, 1.89% global FX reserve was allocated to renminbi , compared with 1.07% in 4Q16, when the currency was first admitted to the Special […]

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China: March PMIs Show Improvement in Economic Activities https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186723-china-march-pmis-show-improvement-in-economic-activities/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/186723-china-march-pmis-show-improvement-in-economic-activities/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2019 05:22:48 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=186723 Markit/Caixin’s PMI report shows recovery in China’s economy in March. The composite output index rose to 52.9 in March, from 50.7 in the prior month. This marks the highest level since June 2018. While the manufacturing sector returned to the expansionary territory, services activities also showed stronger growth. It is likely that GDP growth in […]

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Slowdown in China Remains Pronounced Even After Adjusting for Seasonal Factors https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/180994-slowdown-in-china-remains-pronounced-even-after-adjusting-for-seasonal-factors/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/180994-slowdown-in-china-remains-pronounced-even-after-adjusting-for-seasonal-factors/#respond Thu, 14 Mar 2019 05:20:44 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=180994 China released its latest macroeconomic data for the first two months of the year. Due to Lunar New Year holiday, the January figures for retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment were not released. Despite signs of improvement, the set of data, together with inflation and trade reports released last week, affirmed slowdown in […]

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China’s February PMI Sent Mixed Message. Update on PBOC’s New Tool to Stimulate Economy https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/177369-chinas-february-pmi-sent-mixed-message-update-on-pbocs-new-tool-to-stimulate-economy/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/177369-chinas-february-pmi-sent-mixed-message-update-on-pbocs-new-tool-to-stimulate-economy/#respond Fri, 01 Mar 2019 03:49:34 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=177369 The official manufacturing PMI data, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, slipped -0.3 point to 49.2 in February. The market had anticipated no change from the prior month. This shows that large corporations in the sector, staying in contraction for three months in a row, has been in the worst condition since February 2016. […]

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China’s Monetary Easing to Continue after End of Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/176200-chinas-monetary-easing-to-continue-after-end-of-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/176200-chinas-monetary-easing-to-continue-after-end-of-trade-war/#respond Tue, 26 Feb 2019 05:35:45 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=176200 Market sentiment improves further as Trump sent more hints on trade truce extension and “substantial progress” on striking a trade deal with China. Indeed, his indication that a deal on “currency manipulation” has send renminbi (Chinese yuan) to the 7-month high against the US dollar. Meanwhile, China January money/ credit report has shown signs of […]

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China’s Inflation Weakened Sharply. Trade Improvement Masked by Seasonal Factor https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/173392-seasonal-factor-masked-economic-weakness-in-china/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/173392-seasonal-factor-masked-economic-weakness-in-china/#respond Fri, 15 Feb 2019 07:42:34 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=173392 Headline CPI eased to +1.7% y/y in January, missing consensus of and December’s +1.9%. The slowdown was mainly driven by food price which fell -0.6 percentage point to +1.9%. Non-food inflation steadied at +1.7%. PPI decelerated sharply to +0.1% y/y, from +0.9% a month ago. The market had already anticipated a significant slowdown of +0.2% […]

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Chinese Economy Shows Signs of Stabilization in Late 2018. More Challenge Ahead https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/166310-chinese-economy-shows-signs-in-stabilization-in-late-2018-more-challenge-ahead/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/166310-chinese-economy-shows-signs-in-stabilization-in-late-2018-more-challenge-ahead/#respond Mon, 21 Jan 2019 09:55:38 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=166310 The latest set of macroeconomic data for China shows signs of stabilization. This could be attributed to the government’s expansionary policies both monetarily and fiscally. While the government is expected to add more stimuli this year, the challenge remains tough. GDP growth eased to +6.4% y/y in 4Q18, from +6.5% a quarter ago. Year-over-year growth […]

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PBOC’s Aggressive Liquidity Injection Reveals Severe Growth Slowdown https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/165319-pboc-aggressive-liquidity-injection-reveals-severe-growth-slowdown/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/165319-pboc-aggressive-liquidity-injection-reveals-severe-growth-slowdown/#respond Thu, 17 Jan 2019 09:14:43 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=165319 PBOC has aggressively increased market liquidity. In the form of reverse repo operations, the central bank announced Wednesday that a total of RMB 570B would be pumped to the market. With RMB 10B of previous reverse repo maturing, the net injection would be RMB 560B. While the central bank noted that the move aims at […]

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China’s PMIs Confirmed Manufacturing Sector in Contraction https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/161053-chinas-pmis-confirmed-manufacturing-sector-in-contraction/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/161053-chinas-pmis-confirmed-manufacturing-sector-in-contraction/#respond Wed, 02 Jan 2019 05:47:03 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=161053 The latest PMI data added further evidence that China’s economy is in bad shape. Trade war with the US has not only weakened trade, but also domestic demand. The job market has also deteriorated, suggesting further stimulus is needed to be in place as soon as possible. We expect the central bank to accelerate monetary […]

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China’s Monetary Policy Outlook in 2019 – Easing While Refusing to Admit So https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/160153-chinas-monetary-policy-outlook-in-2019-easing-while-refusing-to-admit-so/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/160153-chinas-monetary-policy-outlook-in-2019-easing-while-refusing-to-admit-so/#respond Thu, 27 Dec 2018 03:32:03 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=160153 Ongoing trade war with the US is accelerating the slowdown in growth in China. As such, the monetary policy adopted by PBOC would continue to be accommodative. Echoing the rhetoric of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, PBOC affirmed that its policy for the coming year would remain “prudent and neutral”. The term “prudent” has […]

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China’s October Data Encourage More Easing From Government https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/148425-chinas-october-data-encourage-more-easing-from-government/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/148425-chinas-october-data-encourage-more-easing-from-government/#respond Wed, 14 Nov 2018 05:06:00 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=148425 The latest set of macroeconomic data in China was mixed. Retail sales grew +8.6% y/y in October, weaker than consensus of, and September’s +9.2%. Automobile sales, contributing 10% to retail sales, declined -11.7% in October, marking the first annual  contraction in almost 3 decades. Alongside the personal tax reform, the government has proposed to reduce […]

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Upbeat Chinese Trade Data Masked Impact of Trade War https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/148083-upbeat-chinese-trade-data-masked-impact-of-trade-war/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/148083-upbeat-chinese-trade-data-masked-impact-of-trade-war/#respond Tue, 13 Nov 2018 05:13:12 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=148083 China’s trade surplus widened to US$ 34B in October. Exports grew +15.6% y/y, beating consensus of +11.7% and September’s +14.5%. Import expanded +21.4% during the month, exceeding market expectations of +14.5% and +14.3% in September. Interestingly, the headline trade data does not seem to be dragged by US’ trade tariff. Indeed, exports to the US […]

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China’s Economic Growth Slowed More than Expected. Worst of Trade War Yet to Come https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/140987-chinas-economic-growth-slowed-more-than-expected-worst-of-trade-war-yet-to-come/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/140987-chinas-economic-growth-slowed-more-than-expected-worst-of-trade-war-yet-to-come/#respond Fri, 19 Oct 2018 07:05:28 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=140987 China’s economic growth decelerated further in 3Q18, as the impacts of restraining infrastructure investment and trade war surfaced. GDP growth moderated to +6.5% y/y in the third quarter, the slowest since the first quarter of 2009. Growth came in lower than market expectations and second quarter’s +6.7%. On an annualized basis, GDP eased to +5.9% […]

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China Eases Monetary Policy Further, Intervening to Avoid Sharp Fall in Renminbi https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/137396-china-eases-monetary-policy-further-intervening-to-avoid-sharp-fall-in-renminbi/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/137396-china-eases-monetary-policy-further-intervening-to-avoid-sharp-fall-in-renminbi/#respond Mon, 08 Oct 2018 07:38:03 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=137396 China announced to cut RRR by 100 bps, effective October 15 and applicable to all types of banks, including large commercial banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks whose current RRR stand at 15.5% (large banks) or 13.5% (small to medium banks). The move would release a total of […]

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Strong Chinese Inflation Mainly Driven by Food Price https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/129588-strong-chinese-inflation-mainly-driven-by-food-price/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/129588-strong-chinese-inflation-mainly-driven-by-food-price/#respond Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:04:17 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=129588 China’s headline CPI rose to a 6-month high of +2.3% y/y in August, up from +2.1% a month ago. However, the increase almost entirely came from food prices which jumped to +1.7%, from +0.5% in the prior month. Taking a close look at food inflation, deflation in pork price eased to -4.9% from July’s -9.6%, […]

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PBOC Prevents Renminbi from Testing 7 Per US Dollar https://www.actionforex.com/featured/125486-pboc-prevents-renminbi-from-testing-psychological-7-per-us-dollar-level/ https://www.actionforex.com/featured/125486-pboc-prevents-renminbi-from-testing-psychological-7-per-us-dollar-level/#respond Tue, 28 Aug 2018 13:03:52 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=125486 China is on pins and needles as it sees renminbi (Chinese yuan) fall. The government dares not risk massive capital flight for uncertain benefit in exports by depreciating its currency. The apparent increases in FX reserve over the past months could hardly conceal concerns over renminbi weakness, which has been driven by rapid slowdown in […]

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Chinese Growth Continued to Shrink in July, Despite Stimulus Measures https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/121309-chinese-growth-continued-to-shrink-in-july-despite-stimulus-measures/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/121309-chinese-growth-continued-to-shrink-in-july-despite-stimulus-measures/#respond Tue, 14 Aug 2018 05:06:13 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=121309 July’s data showed that China’s economic growth continued to decelerate although the government has loosened its policy. All key economic activity indicators missed expectations for the month. Industrial production grew +6% y/y, after a sharp slowdown in June and missing consensus of +6.3%. The moderation has been revealed in the PMI reports released weeks ago. […]

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PBOC Imposes FX Reserve Requirement as Renminbi Selloff Gets Alarming https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/119200-pboc-imposes-fx-reserve-requirement-as-renminbi-selloff-gets-alarming/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/119200-pboc-imposes-fx-reserve-requirement-as-renminbi-selloff-gets-alarming/#respond Mon, 06 Aug 2018 08:01:04 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=119200 PBOC announced last Friday to impose 20% reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on onshore (CNY) FX forward transactions. Despite the central bank’s denial, the move is obviously to moderate recent sharp depreciation of renminbi. Such measure was implemented on October 15, 2015, before removal on September 11, 2017, in an attempt to rescue the massive selloff […]

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Renminbi/Chinese Yuan Depreciates as a Result of Economic Weakness and Loosening Policies https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/117214-renminbi-chinese-yuan-depreciates-as-a-result-of-economic-weakness-and-loosening-policies/ https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/china-watch/117214-renminbi-chinese-yuan-depreciates-as-a-result-of-economic-weakness-and-loosening-policies/#respond Mon, 30 Jul 2018 12:45:15 +0000 https://www.actionforex.com/?p=117214 Renminbi’s depreciation since April this year has accelerated over the past two months. While USDCNY has in aggregate rallied over +6% in June and July, renminbi’s weakness was less pronounced against a basket of currencies. The CEFTS index, the official reminbi index, fell -4.4% over the past two months. As US-China trade conflicts intensify, there […]

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