Wed, Jan 27, 2021 @ 22:02 GMT
Home Action Insight Oil N' Gold

Oil N' Gold

Worsened Demand/Supply Balance Suggests Limited Upside for Crude Oil Prices in Near-Term

Crude oil prices consolidate narrowly around 11-month high. After rebounding about 20% from the March low, upside momentum appears fading. Traders are increasingly concerned about the demand outlook which could be hurt by resurgence in coronavirus cases in China. The Chinese government reported 793 new cases last week, compared...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Bets Trimmed Sharply on Price Correction

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -19 133 contracts to 508 584 for the week. Speculative long position slumped  -27 482 contracts, while shorts fell -8 349 contracts. As we predicted in last week's...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Price Lost Momentum after Gaining Three Weeks in a Row

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 12, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +9 068 contracts to 527 717 for the week. Speculative long position rose +8 183 contracts, while shorts slipped -885 contracts. While recording its third consecutive weekly gain,...

US Crude Inventory Continued to Trim, while Petroleum Stockpile Gained Further

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -9.43 mmb to 1334.27 mmb in the week ended January 8. Crude oil inventory dropped -3.25 mmb (consensus: -2.27 mmb) to 482.21 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold and Silver Prices Corrected Sharply on Profit-taking

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 5, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +6 918 contracts to 518 649 for the week. Speculative long position jumped +28 438 contracts, while shorts rose +21 520 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Inventory Declined, While Petroleum Stockpiles Soared

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.66 mmb to 1343.7 mmb in the week ended January 1. Crude oil inventory fell -8.01 mmb (consensus: -2.13 mmb) to 485.46 mmb. Stockpile decreased in ALL 5...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Decline in Net Length Seen in Both Crude Oil and Gold as Traders Took Profit at Year-End

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 29, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -13 971 contracts to 511 731 for the week. Speculative long position fell -9 904 contracts, while shorts gained +4 067 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

Gold’s Rally Supported by US Fiscal Package and Fed’s Pledge to Keep Stimulus Unchanged after 2% Inflation Exceeded

Gold’s rebound late November has continued for a third week. Besides bargain hunting, Fed’s pledge to keep the policy rate low and strengthening in the forward guidance in QE, as well as the latest fiscal package approved by the Congress are the key driving forces supporting the yellow metal. The...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Crude Oil Futures as Traders Took Profit after 7-Week Rally

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -825 contracts to 513 804 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 539 contracts, while shorts declined -5 714 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...

US Crude Inventory Dropped while Petroleum Stockpiles Increased

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -6.24 mmb to 1367.64 mmb in the week ended December 11. Crude oil inventory fell -3.14 mmb (consensus: -1.94 mmb) to 500.1 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Price Rebounded after Correction

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -2 536 contracts to 514 629 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 251 contracts, while shorts dropped -3 715 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Oil and Petroleum Inventory Rose as Oil Prices Picked Up

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +19.93 mmb to 1373.89 mmb in the week ended December 9. Crude oil inventory rose 15.19 mmb (consensus: -1.42 mmb) to 503.23 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Further Downside Risk for Gold Limited

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -5 474 contracts to 517 165 for the week. Speculative long position gained +4 190 contracts, while shorts rose +9 664 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

OPEC+ to Raise Output from January 2021

OPEC+ finally reached an output cut deal, agreeing to increase production by +0.5M bpd from January 2021. The outcome was slightly surprising as the market had anticiapted an extension of output cut fro three months until March 2021. We believe the decision was a compromise among producers of conflicting...

US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped Less than Anticipated. Price Steadies as Market Awaits OPEC Decicions

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +0.12 mmb to 1353.96 mmb in the week ended November 27. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.68 mmb (consensus: -2.36 mmb) to 488.04 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Stronger Crude Oil Price as Vaccine News Lifted Sentiment

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 24, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +41 828 contracts to 522 39 for the week. Speculative long position gained +34 912 contracts, while shorts fell -6 916 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Inventory Surprisingly Dropped Last Week

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.07  mmb to 1353.84 mmb in the week ended November 20. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.75 mmb (consensus: +0.13 mmb) to 488.72 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...

Questionable OPEC Solidarity Casts Doubt on Output Cut Commitments

While vaccine news should be bullish for the oil market, the rally in crude oil price proves short lived. Ahead of next week’s meeting to decide extension of output cuts, a long-term OPEC member, the UAE, reportedly has shown discontent about the output cut deal. There are rumors that...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Lower Crude Oil Price Trimmed Significantly

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +17 273 contracts to 480 811 for the week. Speculative long position added +4 502 contracts, while shorts slumped -12 771 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Inventory Increased for a Second Week

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -10.16 mmb to 1354.91 mmb in the week ended November 13. Crude oil inventory gained +0.77 mmb (consensus: +1.65 mmb) to 489.48 mmb. Stockpile increased in 3 out...