Bank of Canada Policy Meeting: A Bond Tapering Story
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will set its policy on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, two days after Trudeau’s government tables its first budget in two years. Given earlier warnings, the central bank is expected to stick to its plan and scale down its bond program, although the economy is...
Japanese Yen Jumps as Dollar Retreats
The Japanese yen has jumped out of the gates on Monday. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.02, down 0.66% on the day. The yen is currently at its highest level since March 5th.
Japan exports jump
The global economy is finding its feet, as vaccine rollouts continue to gather steam and...
Currency Pair of the Week: GBP/USD
The UK will release jobs data for March this week. The Claimant Count Change is expected to have risen by 150,000 vs 86,600 in February. If this month’s print is above February's, it will be the most since May 2020. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to uptick to...
US 500 Index Ready to Elevate All-Time High
The US 500 stock index (Cash) is sustaining its bullish tone above the rising Ichimoku lines, which are nourishing the price’s attempts to steer higher. Additionally, the advancing simple moving averages (SMAs) are shielding the positive structure.
The short-term oscillators are reflecting the resilience of the index to survive attempts...
Pound Surges, UK Job Data Looms
The British pound has soared at the start of the week. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3961, up 0.86% on the day.
Will pound break 1.40?
The British pound is on a torrid pace. The currency jumped 0.99% last week and has padded those gains on Monday. GBP/USD is closing in...
AUD/USD: Weaker Dollar Lifts Aussie to One-Month High
The Australian dollar spiked to one-month high vs its US counterpart on Monday as commodity currencies rose on broadly sold greenback.
Bulls penetrated daily cloud but failed to break above as cloud, although thin (0.7762/85) marks solid barrier which reinforces signal on overbought stochastic.
Daily techs show moving averages in full...
April Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Rapidly Strengthening Data, but Is It “Substantial”?
Summary
We do not expect any significant policy changes at the FOMC's April 27-28 meeting, or even a hint that changes may occur soon.
Inter-meeting data have generally been quite strong, but the committee has made clear it needs to see rather than merely forecast a more complete labor...
USD/JPY Outlook: The Dollar Falls Further, Key Supports in Focus
The dollar came under increased pressure from fresh weakness of US Treasury yields on Monday and fell to the lowest since early March.
Fresh bearish acceleration broke pivotal support at 108.40 (23 Mar trough) and cracked 108 (round-figure), focusing key supports at 107.76/45 (Fibo 38.2% of 102.59/110.96, reinforced by rising...
US Open: Stocks Consolidate at Record Highs, Earnings in Focus
US futures are easing lower after the Dow Jones & S&P 500 hit record highs on Friday. Earnings will step up a gear this week with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, IBM & Coca-Cola due. USD slumps to 6 week lows.
US futures
Dow futures -0.2% at 34122
S&P futures -0.3%...
Crude Oil in the Consolidating Phase
On Monday, April 19th, Brent is trading without any particular direction not far from $66.50. The oil market is consolidating after a lot of news that avalanched it earlier.
The latest forecast from JP Morgan suggests an average oil price at $70 by May, which is several months earlier than...
Dollar Selloff Resumes and Accelerates, Sterling Gaining Most For Now
Euro finally breaks through 1.2 handle against Dollar, as the greenback's selloff resumes today and accelerates broadly. Nevertheless, Euro is overwhelmed by others, in particular Sterling, which is the strongest for now, followed by Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies are somewhat lagging behind too, partly as they're facing some pressure...
AUD Hits 1-Month High, RBA Minutes Ahead
The Australian dollar has started the week on a high note, as the US dollar is broadly lower on Monday. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7778, up 0.56% on the day. Today's high of 0.7784 is the highest level since March 18th.
The Aussie has been red-hot of late, gaining...
Gold Recaptures Its Gloss, Flickers Green
Gold seems to have reacquired some of its shine after the positive pivot at the 1,723 level. Surpassing the 1,759 upper frontier of the short-lived sideways market has resurrected the upside bias. The commodity’s recent climb is confirmed with bullish signals by a formed inverted hammer, followed by an...
Bundesbank: Germany economic output decreased in Q1
In the monthly report, Bundesbank said Germany economic output decreased in Q1. Stricter and longer-lasting restrictions increased the losses in many service sectors.
Industrial production fell in February as "supply bottlenecks for preliminary products must have played an important role in the decline." Automotive industry was "particularly hard hit". However,...
EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Rises Above 1.20 Mark For The First Time In Six Weeks
The Euro surged through psychological 1.20 barrier and hit the highest since Mar 4 on Monday, lifted by fresh weakness of the dollar.
Today's bullish acceleration signals continuation of the uptrend from 1.1704 (Mar 31 low) which paused during past three days.
Fresh bulls cracked 50% retracement of 1.2349/1.1704 (early Jan/late...
Will Canada’s Budget Affect Canadian Dollar?
The Canadian dollar had a quiet week, as the currency continues to trade close to the 1.25 level. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2495, down 0.10% on the day.
Budget to focus on Covid-19
The Trudeau government will table a budget on Monday, the first in two years....
GBP/USD Outlook: Trend Reversal Signal Expected On Break Of Nearby Key Barriers
Cable advances for the sixth straight day and hit new nearly two-week high in early European trading on Monday.
Bulls cracked pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.3885 (38.2% of 1.4238/1.3669, eyeing next key levels at 1.3918/28 (Apr 6 high/daily cloud top).
Break of these resistances would confirm double-bottom pattern (1.3669) and generate...
BoE and Treasury to create a Central Bank Digital Currency Taskforce
BoE and UK Treasury announced to jointly create a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Taskforce today, to "coordinate the exploration of a potential UK CBDC". The Taskforce will be co-chaired by BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, and Treasury's Director General of Financial Services, Katharine Braddick.
BoE also...
USDJPY Plunges To 1-Month Trough, Indicators Hold In Oversold Zone
USDJPY is retreating below the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) and is creating a fresh one-month low of 108.45 today. The aggressive selling interest started from the one-year high of 109.85, with the technical indicators confirming the recent move. The RSI is heading south in the oversold zone, while...
EUR/USD breaks 1.2 handle as Dollar selloff resumes
EUR/USD's rally resumes in early European session and it finally takes out 1.2 handle with some power. The solid support from 55 day EMA affirms near term bullishness. The development is also inline with out view that correction from 1.2348 has completed with three waves down to 1.1703. We'd...
DAX Outlook: DAX Is Consolidating Under New Record High, Further Advance Likely
The Dax is trading within narrow consolidation under new all-time high on Monday, following 1.5% rally last Friday (the biggest one-day gains since March 8).
Global stocks remain underpinned by expectations that major world central banks will maintain ultra-loose monetary policies for an extended period of time, while encouraging signs...
EURUSD’s Selling Interest Continues Below 1.20
EURUSD failed several times in the past three days to successfully surpass the 1.1985 crucial resistance and the 1.2000 handle. The price has been in a descending movement since January, remaining below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Ichimoku cloud. The RSI is flattening in the positive...
Technical Picture In The Interest Rate Markets And The FX Market Will Prevail
Markets
Markets last week showed a remarkable disconnect from a series of high-profile (US) data releases. A set of very strong US data, including higher than expected inflation, a strong beat in retail sales, promising confidence indicators and strong housing data weren’t enough to prevent a (technically) significant setback in...
European Open: Japan’s Exports Blow Past Expectations
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 14.6 points (0.21%) and currently trades at 7,078.10
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 59.63 points (0.2%) and currently trades at 29,743.00
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen by 232.17 points (0.8%) and currently trades at 29,201.88
UK and Europe:
...
German Politics And Stand-Off With Russia In Focus While Waiting For ECB
Market movers today
Today: A quiet start to the week in terms of economic data, no key releases are scheduled for today. There won't be speeches from ECB or Fed either, as both central banks have entered blackout periods ahead of upcoming meetings.
During the week: Later in the...
Euro Falls in Crosses, Yen Bounces on Strong Export Data
Yen bounces broadly in Asian session session today, after Japan reported solid trade data. Sterling is currently following as second strongest, then Aussie. On the other hand, Euro weakens in general, dragging down the Swiss Franc too. The developments came as Sterling is reversing recent decline against other European...
Commodities Back the Aussie Bounce
AUD/USD finally broke out last week, trading above 0.7700 for the first time since 23 March. The jump occurred amid a broad-based fall in the US dollar, but commodities and Australia's strong economic data provide fundamental support to the Aussie.
Commodities back the Aussie bounce
After 2 or 3 weeks of...
BOC Preview – Expects Upgrades on Economic Forecasts and More Optimistic Forward Guidance
We expect the BOC to trim its asset purchases to CAD3B/week, from CAD4B/week previously. The reduction is likely driven by lower issuance by the Treasury. It will, however, leave the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%. We also expect the central bank to upgrade the economic...
EUR/USD Eyes Upside Break Above 1.2000
Key Highlights
EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.1920 resistance.
A daily close above 1.2000 might start a steady increase.
GBP/USD could attempt an upside break above the key 1.3880 resistance.
USD/JPY must stay above 108.40 to avoid more losses.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the past few days, the Euro saw...
Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Is Stable Within 0.77-0.7765
STOCKS
Dow has risen well above 34000 and has potential to test 35000. The corrective fall that we have been expecting is not happening. DAX can test its crucial resistance level of 15700 and then reverse lower. Nikkie can fall within its 28000-31000 range. Shanghai can test the upper end...