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Substantial Progress In US Jobs, Overstretched Valuations, Easy Fed And Doge To The Moon

How interesting! The Federal Reserve now thinks that the market valuations are overstretched, as if its ultra-lose monetary policy wasn’t directly responsible for the mega-inflation we see in asset prices over the past decade. The Fed’s remarks are a bit disqueting, now that the US economy is growing at...

China’s Growth Momentum Accelerates Further in Second Quarter, as Shown in Latest PMI and Trade Data

The latest data suggests that China’s economy continues to improve in the second quarter. The Markit/Caixin services PMI increased to 56.3 in April, highest since December 2020. The reading also beat consensus of 54.2 and March’s 54.3. Separately, China's trade surplus tripled in April, compared with a month ago. Markit/Caixin...

European Open: China PMI Beats, Equities Rise Ahead Of NFP

There's an air of confidence ahead of today's NFP, with equity futures and commodities rising overnight. So bulls had best hope it delivers to avoid disappointment. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 22.1 points (0.31%) and currently trades at 7,083.80 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 62.08...

DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls

Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...

DOW hits new record as focus turns to non-farm payrolls

US non-farm payroll report will be a main focus today. Markets are expecting strong 950k growth in April, with unemployment rate down from 6.0% to 5.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.1% mom. Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing dropped from 59.6 to 55.1, but stayed well...

China exports rose 32.3% yoy in Apr, imports up 43.1% yoy, surplus swelled to USD 42.9B

In USD term, in April, China's total trade rose 37.0% yoy to USD 485B. Exports rose 32.3% yoy to USD 264B. Imports rose 43.1% yoy to USD 221B. Trade surplus came in at USD 42.9B, up from March's 13.8B, well above expectation of USD 28.0B. Year to date in April,...

USD/JPY Steadies Above 109.00, US NFP Next

Key Highlights USD/JPY recovered above the 108.50 and 109.00 resistance levels. It is now facing a strong resistance near the 109.65 region. EUR/USD managed to stay above 1.2000, GBP/USD is still struggling above 1.3920. The US nonfarm payrolls could increase 978K in April 2021, up from 916K. USD/JPY Technical Analysis After...

Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Has Risen Too And Could Test 0.78-0.7820 Today

STOCKS Dow has gained momentum and has risen sharply. It is bullish to test 35000 now and the danger of falling below 33500 has been negated. DAX hovers around 15200 and has to break above 15250 to move up towards 15500-15700. Nikkei can move up towards the upper end of...

China Caixin PMI services rose to 56.3, composite rose to 54.7

China Caixin PMI Services rose to 56.3 in April, up from 54.3, above expectation of 54.2. There was steeper increase in activity amid strongest upturn in sales for five months. Quicker rise in employment helped easing capacity pressures. Optimism towards the year ahead remained historically sharp. PMI Composite rose...

RBA discussed upside and downside scenarios in SoMP

In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that it's "committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target". The conditions for raising the cast rate is unlikely to be met "until 2024 at the earliest". RBA...

USDCHF Echoes Bearish Objectives with its Deep Pullback

USDCHF is trying to break below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around the 0.9085 mark, a point at which the 100-day SMA is currently trying to complete a bullish crossover. The 50- and 100-day SMAs are promoting a neutralising force to help the pair creep sideways towards the...

EURCAD at a Make-or-Break Point; Negative Risks Linger

EURCAD was hit by a sharp selling wave last week, erasing the sparkle from early April to meet the crucial support zone of 1.4723. Unless the pair manages to pivot at this point, the bears could gain extra steam likely towards the 1.4580 restrictive zone, while a deeper freefall may seek...

BoE Slows Pace of QE but Pound Yawns

In Thursday trade, the pound lost ground but has recovered. In the North American session, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3898, down 0.02%. BoE to slow pace of QE The Bank of England announced at its policy meeting that it would slow the pace of its QE programme, but emphasized that it...

BOE Predicts Economy to Expand at Strongest Pace since WWII; Announces QE Tapering from this Month

At today's meeting, the BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the central bank voted 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 895B pound, of which 875B pound is government bonds. Policymakers also announced to slow the pace of...

Gold breaks 1800 as rally resumes, 1828 fibonacci level next

Gold's rally from 1677.69 finally resume today by breaking through 1797.71 resistance. Further rise should now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 2075.18 to 1676.65 at 1828.88 first. Break there will target medium term channel resistance at 1865.65 next. We're favoring the case that correction from 2075.18 has completed with...

BOE Recap: Taper, But Not Taper

The Bank of England (BOE) left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and left their bond buying purchase program unchanged at 875 billion Pounds as well.  Only outgoing chief Andy Haldane dissenting in favor of reducing QE purchases to 825 billion Pounds.   The BOE also expects GDP for 2021 to...

Inflation Risk Supports Gold and Silver

An increasing number of companies gave warning for supply shortage which force them to raise prices. Manufacturers and producers from various industries such as semiconductors, lumber and cotton scramble to replenish stockpiles to keep up with demand and higher input prices. However, central bankers still argue that price gains...

US Open: Futures Mixed as Recovery Strengthens

US indices point to a mixed start. The Dow Jones looks set to inch higher, whilst tech is once again out of favour. Jobless claims drop to the lowest level post pandemic. US futures Dow futures +0.07% at 34250 S&P futures -0.07% at 4164 Nasdaq futures -0.1% at 13491 In Europe ...

Swiss Franc and Euro Rise in Mixed Market, Little Reaction to Jobless Claims and BoE

Swiss Franc and Euro jump in overall mixed markets. There were little reaction to better than expected job data from the US. BoE's slowing of asset purchases, and surprising voting prompted brief rally in the Pound, but there is no follow through momentum. Australian Dollar quickly pared back the...

BoE press conference live stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A75I2nH_lW0  

Bank of England Eases Foot Off Monetary Policy Accelerator

Summary The Bank of England (BoE) kept its key policy parameters at today's announcement, keeping the Bank Rate at 0.10% and maintaining its asset purchase target at £895 billion. However, in a modest tweak towards less accommodative monetary policy the BoE reduced the pace of its weekly asset purchases by...

US initial jobless claims dropped to 498k, lowest since March 14, 2020

US initial jobless claims dropped -92k to 498k in the week ending May 1, below expectation of 540k. That's also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -61k to 560k, lowest since March 13, 2020 too. Continuing claims rose 37k to 3690k in...

New Zealand Dollar Flat

NZD/USD is directionless on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7212, down 0.03% on the day. China is in the spotlight, as relations with Australia and New Zealand seem to be souring by the day. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had some stern comments about China...

Loonie May Return To Losses After April’s Employment Report

The loonie has been enjoying a strong upside movement against the US dollar over the last month as investors are waiting for April's employment report on Friday at 17:00 GMT. As the vaccine rollout continues, Ontario is planning to expand eligibility for coronavirus vaccines during May, with shipments increasing...

BoE stands pat, but Haldane voted to cut asset purchases

BoE kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank rate is held at 0.10% on unanimous vote. Asset purchase target was kept at GBP 895B in total. Chief economist Andy Haldane surprisingly dissented, "preferring to continue with the existing programme of UK government bond purchases but to reduce the...

EUR/USD Outlook: Bears Pause Above Psychological 1.20 Support

The Euro bounces on Thursday, as bears faced headwinds from psychological 1.20 support and taking a breather above pivotal 1.2000/1.1973 support zone (psychological/top of thick daily cloud). Upticks should be ideally capped by 100DMA/Fibo 38.2% of 1.2149/1.1985 pullback (1.2048) to keep bears from 1.2149 (Apr 29 high) intact. Caution on firm...

US Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Eases As Recovery Shows Signs Of Stall, Traders Eye US Jobs Data

The dollar slips on Thursday after a week-long recovery from one-month low (driven by strong economic data which pointed to rapid economic recovery) was repeatedly capped by the base of rising and thickening daily cloud. Daily momentum studies remain negative while stochastic is hovering around the border of overbought territory,...

Australian Dollar Takes A China Hit

US dollar drifting The US dollar had another noisy but neutral session overnight, the US dollar index finishing almost unchanged at 91.26. The index has firmed to 91.35 this morning after a weaker China USD/CNY fixing but is still stuck in a broader 90.50 to 91.50 range. Given the propensity...

Uk PMI services finalized at 61.0, surge of pent up demand started to flow through

UK PMI Services was finalized at 61.0 in April, up from March's 56.3. That's also the highest reading since October 2013. Job created accelerated to five-and-a half year high. Input cost inflation also intensified. PMI Composite was finalized at 60.7, up from March's 56.4, a seven-and-a-half year high. Tim Moore,...

Dax Outlook: Extended Recovery Needs Clear Break Of Key Fibo Barrier To Resume

The Dax maintains positive tone and extends recovery from one-week low (14833) into second day. Fresh risk appetite on hopes of strong economic recovery keep the global stocks resilient, while stronger than expected German data, released earlier today, offered additional support. Strong rebound fully retraced Tuesday’s 2.1 % drop (the second...