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Investors Awaiting US Jobs Report Before Making The Next Move

US equity futures are struggling for direction this morning after a late tech selloff yesterday sent the Nasdaq lower for a fourth consecutive session. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to advance to a new record high with the support of cyclical industries. European markets are also set...

AUDUSD Trendless Within 0.7700 Area, Bias Tilted To The Downside

AUDUSD continues to sideline inside the 0.7700 area and below the Ichimoku cloud for the third consecutive week, also remaining within the broader range of 0.7526 – 0.8006 since the start of the year. The short-term risk looks to be tilted to the downside, as the RSI has been making...

Risk Sentiment Remains Key For Trading Today

Markets Main European equity indices bounced off necklines of double top formations yesterday (eg EuroStoxx 3935), indicating that any corrections lower remain short-lived at least for now. A return to recovery highs is necessary to confirm this pattern. The move was partly a catch-up move with the US which finished...

WTI Futures Head Up, Approaching 2½-Month High

WTI futures are heading slightly north after the decline from the two-month high of 66.73. In trend indicators, the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are creating a bullish crossover, standing near the uptrend line. The RSI is confirming the recent upside move, while the MACD oscillator is...

BoE: To Taper Or Not To Taper

It first looked like a softer-than-expected ADP report would revive appetite in growth stocks, but the reflation winds returned quickly to the marketplace, forcing the US big tech to erase earlier gains and close the session 0.37% lower. Dow advanced 0.29%. The next big test for the market is Friday’s...

European Open: With A Turn Of The Screw, China Sends AUD Lower

An otherwise quiet trading session took a turn for the worse overnight, as China “indefinitely” suspended high-level economic talks with Australia. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -35.4 points (-0.5%) and currently trades at 7,060.40 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 481.01 points (1.67%) and currently trades...

Aussie Mildly Lower on Tensions with China, Sterling Steady ahead of BoE

Australian Dollar trades generally lower today, after China announced to "indefinitely" suspended all  activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. But the spike on Aussie was relatively shallow and short-lived. Traders are quick to remember that the tariffs by China on some Aussie products didn't had much material impacts...

GBP/CHF building a base, some BoE previews

BoE is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. Bank rate will be held at 0.10%. Government bond purchase target will be kept at GBP 876B, corporate debts target at GBP 20B. Focuses will be on new economic projections, as well as any hints on tapering. GDP growth forecast...

Crude Oil Price Rose to 7-Week High before Retreat as Inventory Sharply Declined

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -5.58 mmb to 1279.94 mmb in the week ended April 30. Crude oil inventory slumped -7.99 mmb (consensus: -2.35 mmb) to 485.12 mmb. Stockpile declined in 2 out...

New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 7, inflation expectations surged

Preliminary reading of New Zealand ANZ business confidence improved to 7.0 in May, up from -2.0. Own activity outlook also rose to 32.3, up from 22.2. Export intentions rose to 14.9, from 9.1. Investment intentions rose to 20.8, from 17.1. Employment intentions rose to 22.1, from 16.4. Pricing intentions...

Market Morning Briefing: Pound Looks Stable Within 1.38-1.40

STOCKS Dow seems to be gathering momentum slowly. While it sustains above 34000 a further rise is possible in the coming days and the danger of falling below 33500 will get reduced. DAX has risen back sharply but needs to break above 15250 to avoid the expected fall to 14500-14000....

Fed Mester: My positive baseline outlook depends on very accommodative policy

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she expected unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% or lower this year, with GDP growth in 6-7% range. She emphasized, "my positive baseline outlook depends on appropriate monetary policy, which, in my view, will need to be very accommodative for some time to...

Fed Rosengren: Premature to focus on tapering

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday that "significant slack remains in the economy". "Substantial improvement" is needed to Fed to begin tapering. "It is quite possible that we'll see those conditions as we get to the latter half of the year," he said. "But right now what we...

NZD/USD Climbs Above 0.7200 As NZ’s Unemployment Drops

Key Highlights NZD/USD remained well bid above the 0.7100 support. It climbed higher above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7175 on the 4-hours chart. New Zealand's unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.7% in Q1 2021. Crude oil price remains elevated and it surpassed the $65.00...

NFP Preview: 1M Jobs Possible, But Wage Growth Still Stubbornly Straggles

Overview As we noted earlier this week, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading,...

What Do Current PMIs Say About The Global Economy?

The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) monthly data are compiled by surveys of senior executives at private sector companies in over 40 different countries (via marketeconomics.com). The main headline surveys include a Manufacturing PMI, a Services PMI, and a Composite PMI (although some countries only release Manufacturing PMI)....

US oil inventories dropped -8m barrels, WTI firm above 66

US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -8m barrels in the week ending April 30, much larger decline than expectation of -0.8m barrels. At 485.1m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 0.7m barrels. Distillate dropped -2.9m...

British Pound Steady, BoE Meeting Next

After starting the week with strong gains, the British pound has settled down. In the North American session, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3900, up 0.09% on the day. The British economy continues to perform well, as the recovery is gaining traction. On Tuesday, Manufacturing PMI in April came in at...

April Nonfarm Payrolls to Glide Higher, but Dollar has Other Matters to Care

US Nonfarm payrolls will probably put on another spectacular show this Friday at 12:30 GMT, mirroring a blossoming economic recovery as the ultra-easy monetary and fiscal policies combined with the rapidly growing vaccination rollout are brightening up the landscape out of the health crisis. This euphoria, however, is already well priced in, and the jobs data...

US ISM non-manufacturing drops to 62.7, still corresponds to 4.7% annualized GDP growth

US ISM non-manufacturing dropped to 62.7 in April, down from 63.7, below expectation of 64.3. Business activity/production dropped -6.7 to 62.7. New orders dropped -4.0 to 63.2. Employment rose 1.6 to 58.8. Prices rose 2.8 to 76.8. The reading indicates services sector grew for the 11th consecutive month, after two...

Fed Evans: Employment mandate is within sight, but inflation may prove more difficult

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, "our employment mandate is within sight", but "achieving our inflation goal may prove more difficult." He added that "policy is likely on hold for some time." Evans added that pre-pandemic economy with unemployment rate at 3.5% couldn't even generate 2% inflation. hence, risk of...

US Open: Stocks Rebound on Recovery Optimism, Oil Surges

US stocks look set to rebound after Janet Yellen backtracks her interest rate hike hint. ADP rises the most since September. Oil approaches $70. US futures Dow futures +0.2% at 34215 S&P futures +0.3% at 4180 Nasdaq futures +0.5% at 13621 In Europe FTSE +1.47% at 7010 Dax +1.5% at 15086 ...

NZ Dollar Rebounds on Sharp Job Data

NZD/USD has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7196, down 88% on the day. New Zealand employment data outperforms The New Zealand dollar continues to show significant volatility this week. NZD/USD fell by 0.76% on Tuesday but has recovered these losses in the Wednesday...

Canadian Dollar Higher With Commodity Currencies, Euro Weakens

Commodity currencies continue to trade as the stronger ones entering into US session. In particular, Canadian is helped by extended rally in oil prices. New Zealand Dollar continues to receive support from better than expected job data. Overall sentiments are positive with European stocks staging a rebound, while US...

US ADP employment grew 742k in Apr, continues an upward trend of acceleration

US ADP employment grew 742k in April, below expectation of 808k. By company size, small businesses added 235k jobs, medium businesses 230k, large businesses 277k. By sector, goods-producing companies added 106k jobs, services-providing companies 636k. "The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading...

Eurozone PPI rose 1.1% om, 4.3% yoy in March, EU at 1.2% mom, 4.5% yoy

Eurozone PPI rose 1.1% mom, 4.3% yoy in March, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 4.0% yoy. For the month, Industrial producer prices increased by 2.0% in the energy sector, by 1.3% for intermediate goods, by 0.8% for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.3% for capital goods and by 0.2% for...

USD/JPY Outlook: Rising Daily Cloud Underpins The Action For Final Break Of 109.63 Pivot

The dollar stands at the front foot on Wednesday and eyes cracked pivot at 109.63 (Fibo 61.8% of 110.96/107.47), where bull-trap was formed on Monday that still weigh on the action. On the other side, rising and thickening daily cloud continues to underpin, along with daily moving averages in bullish...

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 53.8, out of double-dip recession in Q2

Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 50.5 in April, up from March's 49.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.8, up from March's 53.2. Latest data indicated fastest expansion since last July and the second best in over two-and -a-half years. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: "April's...

Gold Persists Sideways As 1,800 Border Contests Gains

Gold is slipping below the mid Bollinger band, which has merged with the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) around 1,780 but the last two weeks of price action remain confined between the limits of 1,756 and 1,800. The 100- and 200-period SMAs are defending the latest up leg from...

GBPJPY Eases After Consecutive Green Sessions

GBPJPY is turning lower after consecutive green sessions, finding strong support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). A paused state of directional momentum is reflected in the Ichimoku lines, while the price rests above the upper surface of the Ichimoku cloud. The mixed signals in the short-term oscillators further...