ECB Lane: Down revisions to forecasts mean slower path of normalization

    ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane said earlier today that there will be only be “reasonably small adjustments” in the upcoming economic forecasts in March. And, the “downward revisions in data to mean a slower path of normalization”.

    But he believed the current strategy can “cater to limited downside revisions” and the “forward guidance can accommodate revision to the projections. Currently, ECB maintained that interest rates will stay at present levels at least through Summer of 2019.

    Lane is currently the only candidate to replace ECB chief economist Peter Praet from June.

    Fed kept interest rate at 0-0.25%, maintain asset purchast at least at current pace

      Fed left federal funds rate target rate unchanged at 0.00-0.25% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. FOMC also pledged to maintain the target range “until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” Additionally, Fed will “increase its holdings of treasury and MBS “at least at the current pace”.

      In the accompanying statement, FOMC said that the coronavirus and containment measures “have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses”. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are “holding down consumer price inflation”. Though, financial conditions “have improved” due to policy measures.

      Fed also said it will “continue to monitor implications of incoming information” and pledged to “use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy”. The range of information watched include “measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

      Full statement below.

      Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

      The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

      The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

      The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

      The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

      To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

      Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

      France PMI manufacturing revised up to 53.8, growth rate broadly unchanged after three months of softening

        France PMI manufacturing was finalized at 53.8 in April, revised up from 53.4. Markit noted that overall growth broadly unchanged having slowed in previous three months. Rates of expansion in output and employment quicken. And, inflationary pressures remain elevated.

        Comments from Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit:

        “Having softened in the previous three months, the rate of growth in the French manufacturing sector was broadly unchanged at the start of the second quarter. Encouragingly, output and employment rose at sharper rates than in March.

        “On a less positive note, the pace of expansion in new orders continued to moderate, in turn leading to the weakest degree of business confidence for seven months.

        “The slowdown in client demand growth seen since the start of 2018 can be partially linked to poor weather conditions, while the recent train strikes may also have played a part. The degree to which these factors can explain the slowdown or whether the cause is something of greater concern will become more apparent in the coming months.”

        Full release here.

        Germany PMI hit 6-month high, potential for renewed upward pressure on headline inflation

          Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 56.1 in August, down from 56.9 and missed expectation of 56.6. PMI services rose to 55.2, up from 54.1 and beat expectation of 54.4. PMI composite rose to 55.7, up from 55.0, hit a 6-month high.

          Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

          “German business continued to display remarkable resilience during August, with the latest PMI data going some way to dispel any fears about a global trade slowdown and its impact on the health of the economy.

          “Buoyed by strong fundamentals in the domestic market, including rising employment and wages, the service sector enjoyed an upturn in growth in August and drove the steepest rise in private sector business activity for six months.

          “While the manufacturing PMI retreated slightly, it remained well inside growth territory at the midpoint in the third quarter. The top-line number is perhaps flattered by the output component, with trends in new orders and exports – the latter the weakest in over two years – pointing to a softer pace of growth.

          “Elsewhere, the survey’s measure of prices charged for goods and services edged closer to January’s survey-record peak, to suggest the potential for some renewed upward pressure on the headline inflation rate in coming months.”

          Full release here.

          Into US session: Sterling recovers, but upside capped by Brexit confusions

            Entering US session, New Zealand Dollar remains the strongest one for today. Sterling regains some ground yet it’s limited generally below yesterday’s high. Traders are looking at Brexit debate and amendment voting in the Commons, with increasing confusions. New alternatives emerge including the Brady Amendments as the Malthouse Compromise. But after all, one of the keys lies in whether there would be a united consensus within the UK. And another key is whether the EU would agree to re-open negotiations.

            As for today, Swiss Franc is the weakest one followed by Yen. European stocks rise broadly on return of risk appetite while DOW futures also point to higher open. Eyes will also be on US-China trade negotiations but so far there is little news.

            In Europe, currently:

            • FTSE is up 1.34%.
            • DAX is up 0.20%.
            • CAC is up 0.97%.
            • German 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 0.207.

            Earlier in Asia:

            • Nikkei rose 0.08%.
            • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.16%.
            • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.10%.
            • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.37%.
            • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.005 to 0.005.

            Italy agrees to take some Libya migrants as some EU countries offer help

              Italy’s far right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini said on Sunday that the country is allowing some of the asylum seekers from Libya to disembark in Sicily. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte set letters to head of state of other EU nations asking to share responsibility on the Libya migrants. In response, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and Malta have agreed to take 50 people each.

              “Spain will take in 50 of the people rescued yesterday in the Mediterranean. This shows our commitment to offer solutions to migration flows and solidarity with the humanitarian drama,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez confirmed and tweeted.

              EU announces targeted contingency measures in case of no-deal Brexit

                The European Commission announced today a set of “targeted contingency measures” in case of no-deal Brexit on January 1, 2021. The measures aim at ” ensuring basic reciprocal air and road connectivity between the EU and the UK, as well as allowing for the possibility of reciprocal fishing access by EU and UK vessels to each other’s waters.”

                President von der Leyen said: “Negotiations are still ongoing. However, given that the end of the transition is very near, there is no guarantee that if and when an agreement is found, it can enter into force on time. Our responsibility is to be prepared for all eventualities, including not having a deal in place with the UK on 1 January 2021. That is why we are coming forward with these measures today”.

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PMI Composite finalized at 47.3, headed for a winter recession

                  Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 48.5 in October, down from September’s 48.8, a 20-month low. PMI Composite was finalized at 47.3, down from prior month’s 48.1, a 23-month low. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite dropped to 45.1 (29-month low), Italy to 45.8 (22-month low), Spain to 48.0 (9-month low), France to 50.2 (19-month low), and Ireland to 52.1, (2-month low).

                  Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                  “After a weak third quarter of PMI and official GDP data, the latest survey results for the start of the fourth quarter suggest the eurozone economy is now headed for a winter recession. High inflation is dampening demand and hurting business confidence. Fears that the energy crisis could intensify over the winter period are also feeding uncertainty and weighing on decision-making.

                  “Nonetheless, the ECB will want to continue with monetary tightening to contain inflation. October PMI data suggest inflationary pressures remained extremely elevated across the eurozone. We did, however, see some dovish tones in the rhetoric surrounding the ECB’s October policy decision, clearly showing that the Governing Council are concerned by the rapidly deteriorating economic outlook. A substantial worsening of economic conditions in the coming months may give policymakers a difficult decision to make with regards to the path of monetary tightening, for fear of being too aggressive and prolonging the downturn.”

                  Full release here.

                  BoE Vlieghe: Wage growth still happening quite slowly

                    BoE Gertjan Vlieghe said in an interview with the Newcastle Journal that wage growth is “still happening quite slowly”. And he pointed to 2% wage growth for “a couple of years” and its now “at about 2.5% or 3%” only.

                    He noted “the general idea is an old one that is still valued”. That is, “at some point the unemployment rate is low enough that it gets increasingly difficult for employers to find workers or keep the ones they have.” He pointed to unemployment rate at 43-year low, “reports of skills shortages” and “job turnover” at a cyclical high. And that “creates pay pressures as their companies try to attract employees and stop their own from leaving”.

                    But such development “has happened later in the process” and “it is only in 2017 we have been starting to see that.” He added one of the reasons was that employers did not reduce compensations during the financial crisis. Additionally, many people are classed as under-employment, showing that they’re only working part-time. Employment had turn to other method to compete for talent rather than just high pay.

                    Trump: Not quite at the stage to meet Xi to seal trade deal yet

                      Trump met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in the oval office yesterday as the two-day top level US-China trade talks concluded. Trump said in during the meeting that “we’re not quite at that stage yet”, referring to the meeting with Chinese President Xi JinPing. He noted the representatives of both sides were “coming to a conclusion, except for certain very important points.” When he and Xi meets, “we want to have it down so that we have certain points that we can discuss and, I would say, agree to.” For now the meeting wasn’t set up yet.

                      Nevertheless, Trump hailed that Liu’s promise to buy five millions tons of soybeans per days. He said ” it really is a sign of good faith for China to buy that much of our soybeans and other product that they’ve just committed to us prior to the signing of the deal — is something that makes us very proud to be dealing with them.”

                      On the March 1 negotiation dead line, Trump said it has stayed and “we haven’t talked about extending the deadline.” But he added that “at a certain point, you’re going to have — this is a very complex, and a very large — it’s the largest transaction ever made, to be perfectly straight.” Regarding Huawei’s case Trump said “it will be discussed” at some point. And it’s “very small compared to the overall deal, but that will be discussed.”

                      US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer reiterated in the meeting that ” We focused on the most important issues, which are the structural issues and the protection of U.S. intellectual property, stopping forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, agriculture and services issues, and enforcement, enforcement, enforcement.” And, “both sides agree this agreement is worth nothing — if we can get an agreement, it’s worth nothing without enforcement.” Lighthizer will go to China shortly, after Chinese Year Year.

                      During the meeting, Liu also noted the need to establish three key themes, including “enforcement or implementation.”

                      Full transcript of the meeting.

                      White House statement after the meeting.

                      UK GDP grew 0.4% mom in Oct, still -7.9% below Feb’s level

                        UK GDP grew 0.4% mom in October, slightly below expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s, nonetheless, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. GDP was 23.4% higher than the trough in April, but -7.9% below the level in pre-pandemic February.

                        Services grew 0.2% mom, but remains -8.6% below February’s level. Production grew 1.3% mom, but was -4.4% below February’s level. Construction rose 1.0% mom, but remains -6.4% below February’s level.

                        Also released, goods trade deficit widened to GBP -12.0B i, widener than expectation of GBP -9.6B.

                        US-China trade talks continue after very productive working dinner

                          US-China trade talks entered a full day meeting in Beijing today. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said as he left his hotel today that “we had a very productive working dinner last night, and we are looking forward to meeting today.” As in other similar occasions, there was no further elaboration. Meanwhile, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was quiet on the topic.

                          Back in the US, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the trade negotiation is “not time-dependent” but “policy- and enforcement-dependent”. And it may take “if it takes a few more weeks, or if it takes months, so be it.” On the topic of lifting imposed tariffs in case of a deal, Kudlow said “we’re not going to give up our leverage”. Nevertheless, “It doesn’t necessarily mean that all of the tariffs would be kept in place. Some of the tariffs would be kept there.

                          US Q2 GDP grew 2.0%, dragged by downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment

                            According to the second estimate, US GDP grew 2.0% annualized in Q2, unrevised from first estimate, down from Q1’s 3.1%. The deceleration in real GDP in the Q2 primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

                            The PCE price index increased 2.3%, compared with Q1’s 0.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7%, Q1’s 1.1%.

                            US initial jobless claims dropped to 222k

                              US initial jobless claims dropped -4k to 222k in the week ending November 12, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 221k.

                              Continuing claims rose 13k to 1507 k in the week ending November 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 31k to 1482k.

                              Full release here.

                              EU Malmstromg: Scope of trade negotiation with US cannot be defined until early 2019

                                EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom met US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday. Malmstrom said the meeting focused on regulatory cooperations issues, plus ways for EU to import more soybeans and LNG from the US. She also told Lighthizer the EU’s willingness to negotiation a trade deal, but that would be limited to industrial goods, excluding agriculture. However, Malmstrom noted that the scope of the talks cannot be defined until early 2019. USTR will have to complete its consultation with Congress. EU will also need to receive negotiating mandate from member states.

                                On US auto tariff threats, Malmstrom said EU already has a list of retaliation targets ready. She said “it could be cars, it could be agriculture, it could be industrial products – it could be everything. And we will do that, but hope we don’t have to get to that situation.”

                                Italian yield tumbles after Salvini pledged not to blow up public account

                                  Italian 10 year bond yield drops sharply today as, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini reiterated the pledge not to blow up public accounts ahead of budget meeting. Salvini, leader of the far right League, said in a newspaper interview that “clearly we will not do everything in one shot, not even Italians expect that from us… If we want to run the country for a long period we cannot blow up its public accounts.”

                                  10 year Italian yield drops -0.088 to 2.943 so far today. It hit as high as 3.281 last week. The development suggests that investors concern over Italian budget is eased.

                                  AUD/NZD is a pair to watch with key Aussie and Kiwi data featured

                                    AUD/NZD would be a pair to watch this week with lots of key events featured. In the background, eyes will remain on whether the coronavirus cases in Victoria of Australia continue to worsen. On data front, Australia will release NAB business confidence and employment. New Zealand will release CPI inflation.

                                    AUD/NZD is so far still engaging in consolidation pattern from 1.0880, as a short term top was formed after hitting 1.0865 resistance. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9994 to 1.0880 at 1.0542 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.0669 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to bring stronger rebound back towards 1.0880. However, sustained break of 1.0542 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.0332.

                                    CAD dips as BoC signals it’s not ready for rate hike yet

                                      CAD trades notably lower after BoC rate announcement. Overnight rate target was kept at 1.25% as widely expected. The key takeaway from the statement is that the “higher interest rates will be warranted over time”, but “some monetary policy accommodation” will be needed. “Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments”, as “guided by incoming data”. And the “economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity” and “dynamics of both wage growth and inflation” will be watched. Basically, these were the elements mentioned in the last paragraph of March statement, just juggled into different place.

                                      Here is the full statement.

                                      In short, BoC is making itself quite clear that it’s not ready to have another rate hike yet.

                                      USD/CAD’s rebound and break of 1.2622 minor resistance suggests that a short term bottom was formed at 1.2526. More consolidation would be seen, with risk of stronger recovery. But still, decline from 1.2942 is expected to resume at a later stage.

                                      ECB de Guindos: Signs of global stabilization, but lots of uncertainties from coronavirus

                                        ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expected inflation to hover at current low levels over the six months. He also “started to see some signs of stabilization on a global level”. Risks are also less tilted to the downside. However, he still sees “a lot of uncertainties” surrounding China’s coronavirus outbreak.

                                        He also urged that “completing the banking union is pivotal” for the performance of the Eurozone. Fiscal must play a role as side effects of monetary policy are becoming more tangible.

                                        ECB Makhlouf: The era of negative rates is reaching its conclusion

                                          ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said today, ECB has reached the point “act”. And, “the balance of advantage has tilted decisively towards the need for further action, albeit not necessarily at a similar pace to that of other central banks”.

                                          “Our objective is for inflation to be at 2% over the medium term – levels are significantly above that now, and it is time for the Council to move to end net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme next month or in July,” he said.

                                          Makhlouf added, it’s “realistic to expect that the first move in the ECB’s interest rates will happen soon after net asset purchases end and that rates are likely to be in positive territory by early next year.” But he didn’t specify when the rate hike would occurs.

                                          “The era of negative rates is reaching its conclusion,” he said.