Mon, Jul 22, 2019 @ 05:35 GMT

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD breached 1.1509 to 1.1507 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week as consolidation from 1.1509 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1507/9 will resume the whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1721 last week but failed to take out 1.1733 resistance and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend higher. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound. Retest of 1.1300 low should then be seen. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.2555 extended to as low as 1.1643 last week. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 next. On the upside, above 1.1750 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2049) holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1514 extended lower last week and the development suggests that rebound from 1.1289 has already completed. Initial bias stays mildly on the downside this week for 1.1289 support first. Firm break of 1.1289 support will argue that corrective pattern from 1.1251 has completed. And, in that case, larger decline from 1.2555 is ready to resume through 1.1251 low. On the upside, above 1.1380 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1509 short term bottom extend to 1.1839 last week but lost momentum since then. As the pair stays above 1.1713 minor support, initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 1.1839 will extend the rebound. But since it’s seen as a correction, upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1713 minor support will likely resume larger fall from 1.2555 through 1.1509 to 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s decline extended to as low as 1.1463 last week. As a temporary low formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. The break of 1.1525 indicates completion of rebound from 1.1300 to 1.1814, Thus, upside of recovery from 1.1463 should be limited below 1.1623 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1463 will target a test on 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dipped lower last week but downside was contained by 1.1529 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.1300 are forming a corrective pattern. IN case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1529 minor will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. After all, consolidation from 1.1300 will likely extend for a while before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

 

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.1569 last week and broke 1.1499 resistance. The development argues that rise from 1.1215 is correcting whole down trend from 1.2555. But as a temporary top is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.1569 will extend the rebound through 1.1621 resistance to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1215 at 1.1727 next. On the downside, however break of 1.1422 support will bring retest of 1.1214 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2413 last week but reversed well ahead of near term falling trend line. Initial bias is now on 1.2214 support his week. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1814 extended to as low as 1.1335 last week but recovered since then. As a temporary low is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.1335 will target 1.1300 low. Break will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 1.1621 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.1300 with another rise before larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD stayed in sideway consolidation from 1.1509 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 low will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. On the upside, in case of stronger rebound, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1507 extended higher last week but outlook is unchanged that it’s in a consolidation pattern. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.1851 resistance. But upside should be limited there to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1649 minor support will bring retest of 1.1507 low first. Break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dropped further to 1.1215 last week be recovered ahead of 1.1186 long term fibonacci level. For now such recovery is seen as a corrective move. Initial bias remains neutral this week and upside should be limited by 1.1499 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1270 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1215 and then 1.1186. However, firm break of 1.1499 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2274; (P) 1.2329 (R1) 1.2358; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high. Decisive break there will resume medium term rally and carry larger bullish implication. But again, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2290; (P) 1.2310 (R1) 1.2337; More….

At this point, EUR/USD is still holding above 1.2285 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.2475 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. We’d be cautious on reversal from there. But decisive break will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2285 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2154 and below to extend the decline from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2236; (P) 1.2285 (R1) 1.2318; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for 1.2238 support first. Break will target 1.2154 support and below. Such development would confirm the rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance and pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708. However, break of 1.2344 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD gyrated lower to 1.1574 last week but recovered from there. The pair is staying in the consolidation that started back in 1.1509. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 1.1790 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1851 to limit upside. On the downside, firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD was bounded in range of 1.1267/1472 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 1.1472 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1289 extended to as high as 1.1514 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Another rise is in favor as long as 1.1407 minor support holds. Rise from 1.1289 is seen as another rising leg in the correction pattern from 1.1215. Above 1.1514 will target 1.1569 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.1407 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1289 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dropped to 1.1289 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1215 is still extending, with rise from 1.1289 as another leg. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for 1.1569 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1289 is needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.1569. Otherwise, risk will stay on the upside in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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