Sun, Jul 05, 2020 @ 13:08 GMT

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.36; (P) 140.76; (R1) 141.31; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 139.88 temporary low. But as long as 142.46 minor resistance intact, , deeper fall is still in favor. Sustained break of 139.29/47 key support zone will carry larger bearish implication and target 135.58 support next. Though, break of 142.46 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. But the current downside accelerate makes this view shaky. Focus will be on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s rebound was limited at 150.29 last week and dropped notably. But it’s so far staying above 147.03 minor support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we maintain the view that rebound from 144.97 is a corrective move. Therefore, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.03 will bring retest of 144.97 low first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 150.92 will pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, rejection from 55 month EEMA (now at 154.27) argues that medium term rebound from 122.36 might be completed. And, the corrective structure also carries some bearish implication today. Sustained break of 135.58 key support will likely bring retest of 122.36 low, with prospect of resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high).

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.21; (P) 132.70; (R1) 132.94; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 131.90 support suggests that corrective rebound from 123.94 has completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 123.94 low. On the upside, above 133.17 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.63; (P) 132.34; (R1) 133.40; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Correction from 135.74 is possibly completed and from 123.94 might be resuming. Further rise would be seen to 135.74 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 130.67 support will turn intraday bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 135.74 at 128.44.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation above 144.02 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook remains bearish with 145.99 resistance intact and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 144.02 will resume the fall from 149.48 and target 139.39/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 145.99 support turned resistance could bring stronger rebound. But near tem outlook will be neutral at best as long as 149.70 key resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.05; (P) 142.81; (R1) 143.99;  More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside. Current rise from 131.51 is in progress for 143.93 resistance. Break will pave the way back to 149.48 key resistance next. On the downside, below 140.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But further rally is expected as long as 137.35 minor support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 (2018 high) already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. No change in this view. Strong rebound from 131.51 argues that fall from 156.59 is just the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36. Break of 149.38 resistance will confirm the third leg has started to 159.69, and possibly above. Nevertheless, break of 131.51 will pave the way to retest 122.26 low.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.53; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.75; More….

GBP/JPY’s recovery from 144.97 is still in progress and further rise could be seen. But again, such rise is viewed as a corrective move. And hence, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.03 will bring retest of 144.97 low first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 150.92 will pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.61; (P) 147.31; (R1) 148.06; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as recovery from 144.97 temporary low is in progress. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 150.92 resistance to bring another decline. Break of 144.97 will extend the fall from 156.69 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. We’ll look for bottoming signal there. But firm break will target 139.29 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.51; (P) 147.86; (R1) 148.30; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in the corrective move from 144.97 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise might be seen. But upside should be limited by 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78 to bring fall resumption. Break of 144.97 will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.91; (P) 150.57; (R1) 151.25; More…

GBP/JPY’s rise from 144.97 gathers further upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. And it reaches as high as 151.45 so far. With 150.92 resistance taken out, intraday bias is on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 152.15 and above. For now, price actions from 144.97 are still seen as corrective looking. Hence, we’ll look for sign of loss of upside momentum as it approaches 156.59 high. However, break of 148.37 is now needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.62; (P) 152.25; (R1) 153.33; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally from 144.97 continues today and reaches as high as 153.56 so far. Break of near term channel resistance shows upside acceleration. Intraday bias stays on the upside for a test on 156.59 high next. On the downside, below 152.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But another rise would be expected as long as 150.58 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.09; (P) 148.10; (R1) 148.71; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall from 149.48 accelerates lower today and focus is on 146.28 support. Decisive break there will confirm completion of rebound from 142.76. And in that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 142.76 and possibly below. On the upside, decisive break of 149.70 will resume whole rise from 139.88 and target 153.84/156.59 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.54; (P) 149.51; (R1) 150.10; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Choppy rebound from 144.97 is seen as a corrective move. We’d expect strong resistance from limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.65 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s decline from 148.57 extended to as low as 144.31 last week. The break of near term trend line support and 144.84 support turned resistance indicates short term topping at 148.57. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 131.51 to 148.57 at 142.05. On the upside, break of 146.60 minor resistance will indicate completion of the pull back and turn bias to the upside for 148.57.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above. However, firm break of 141.00 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 131.51 low instead.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 122.36 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) doesn’t display a clear impulsive structure. Thus, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 131.51 support will bring 122.26 low back into focus.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.58; (P) 147.31; (R1) 148.46; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Current rise from 131.51 should target 149.48 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 146.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.42; (P) 144.72; (R1) 145.05; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 143.72/148.87. For now, further rise remains in favor as long as 143.72 support holds. Decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish in implications and target 156.58 resistance next. However, on the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 140.92 last week. Strong break of 143.18 support confirmed resumption of whole decline from 156.59. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 139.29/47 key support level. We’ll pay attention to bottoming signal around that level. On the upside, break of 143.48 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. But the current downside accelerate makes this view shaky. Focus will be on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.88) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.53; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.75; More….

GBP/JPY drops sharply after hitting 150.29 but it’s holding above 147.03 minor support so far. Intraday bias is neutral first. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we maintain the view that rebound from 144.97 is a corrective move. Therefore, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.03 will bring retest of 144.97 low first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 150.92 will pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.25; (P) 146.70; (R1) 147.09; More…

GBP/JPY retreated notably after hitting 147.13 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, above 147.13 will extend the rebound from 145.25 to 149.30/99 resistance zone. On the downside, below 145.25 will resume the fall from 149.30 to 143.18/76 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 156.59 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

- advertisement -

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.88; (P) 135.09; (R1) 138.26; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is neutral for some consolidations. But upside should be limited by 138.04 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 133.88 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 131.51 low first. Break will pave the way back to 122.36 (2016 low). Nevertheless, touching of 138.04 will confirm short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. Fall from 156.69 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high). Break of 122.36 will target 116.83 low first (2011 low). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 139.88 support turned resistance holds.

- advertisement -
- advertisement -