USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2975; (P) 1.3021; (R1) 1.3099; More….

USD/CAD surges to as high as 1.3071 so far and met 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.306 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.3685. On the downside, below 1.2920 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2802 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3121; (P) 1.3155; (R1) 1.3182; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. And further rise is expected as long as 1.3056 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3264 will resume the rise from 1.2781 and target 1.3385 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of break of 1.3056 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3435; (P) 1.3469; (R1) 1.3506; More

At this point, USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3521 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s sharp decline last week suggests that choppy rise from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3564 already. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.3052/68 cluster support. On the upside, break of 1.3363 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term channel support now argues that up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.3664 (2018 high), just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, and 1.3793 resistance. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3564 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. Rejection by 1.3793 resistance would raise the chance of lengthier extension, with risk of dropping through 1.2061 low before completion.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD dipped to 1.2475 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective rise from 1.2363 might have completed at 1.2646 already, after hitting 55 day EMA. Below 1.2475 will bring retest of 1.2363 low first. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds, even in case of another rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2857; (P) 1.2928; (R1) 1.2983; More….

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation below 1.3000 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor. Above 1.3000 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to t 1.3065 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.2757 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.2450 support.

In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3154; (P) 1.3174; (R1) 1.3203; More

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3208 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.3042 to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.3042 will target 1.3347 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2781; (P) 1.2818; (R1) 1.2857; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2957 will resume the rebound from 1.2688 short term bottom, for 1.3172 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2688 will resume larger down trend instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD dropped to 1.2732 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week. Overall development suggests near term reversal, with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Hence, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2942 resistance holds. Below 1.2732 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. However, break of 1.2942 will invalidate this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3214 high.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3385; (P) 1.3415; (R1) 1.3431; More

USD/CAD lost upside momentum ahead of 1.3467 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. On the upside, firm break of 1.3467 resistance will reinforce the case that corrective pull back from 1.3664 has completed at 1.3068. USD/CAD should then target a test on 1.3664. On the downside, break of 1.3352 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3250 support first.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3192) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3045; (P) 1.3060; (R1) 1.3086; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.3102/4 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2951. Further rise should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3130) and above. On the downside, break of 1.2951 will resume larger decline to 100% projection of 1.3564 to 1.3016 from 1.3327 at 1.2779 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.2673. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2673 will put focus on 1.2061 low.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3529; (P) 1.3614; (R1) 1.3659; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.3175 with current retreat. Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.3485 support holds. Break of 1.3715 will extend the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. Nevertheless, break of 1.3485 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2559; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2638; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside as fall from 1.2947 is extending. Deeper decline could be seen to 1.2421 support. Firm break there will suggest rejection by 1.3022 fibonacci level. Rise from 1.2005 could have completed in this case and deeper fall would be seen to retest this low. On the other hand, break of 1.2711 minor resistance will revive near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3186; (P) 1.3206; (R1) 1.3222; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.3664 should have completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Further rally would be seen to 1.3327 resistance first. Decisive break of 1.3327 should confirm this bullish case. On the downside, below 1.3190 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3552; (P) 1.3600; (R1) 1.3675; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside at this point. As note before, the correction pattern from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves to 1.3299. Further rally should be seen to 1.3860/3976 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 1.3521 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3302) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3067; (P) 1.3093; (R1) 1.3146; More….

USD/CAD rebounds strongly today but stays below 1.3143 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3218).

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD rose sharply last week but upside is still limited below 1.2996 resistance. Initial bias remain neutral this week first. Overall, we’re holding on to the bullish view that rises from 1.2526, 1.2246, 1.2061 are not completed yet. Break of 1.2996 should confirm our view. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3124 high next. Nonetheless, break of 1.2728 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.2526 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2519; (P) 1.2579; (R1) 1.2609; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2947 is in progress for 1.2421 support. Sustained break there will suggest rejection by 1.3022 fibonacci level. Rise from 1.2005 could have completed in this case and deeper fall would be seen to retest this low. On the upside, break of 1.2701 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3270; (P) 1.3304; (R1) 1.3357; More….

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3345 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected with 1.3177 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3177 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral first. Decisive break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2728; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2790; More….

USD/CAD’s decline continues today and hit as low as 1.2734 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, near term trend should have reversed with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Decline from 1.3124 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, above 1.2805 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.