Wed, Feb 08, 2023 @ 16:36 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisUSD Perks Up, AUD/USD Slips Ahead Of Fed

USD Perks Up, AUD/USD Slips Ahead Of Fed

The US dollar perked up mid-Asia, weighing notably on commodity currencies AUD and NZD ahead of the meeting. With a likely swing high in pace, AUD/USD could be headed for 70c.

With DXY currently within its 7th bearish session over the past 8, its plausible that traders were booking profits ahead of today’s Fed meeting, during an otherwise uneventful session. A spike on the dollar was seen across the board for FX and most commodities, although at time of writing, AUD/USD is today’s weakest performer and largest move among majors and crosses.

Looking past the Aussie’s flash crash, which saw prices spike below 70c during low-liquidity trade, prices have mostly remained above 70c. However, we can see the 200-day eMA has capped as resistance whilst a series of lower highs formed. Furthermore, the 0.7207 and 0.7120 lower highs have accelerated away from the 200-eMA which shows a pickup of bearish momentum. Zooming into the candlesticks shows the 0.7120 high respected the 50-day eMA, and today’s action has broken beneath a bearish inside candle and 0.7078 to mark a breakout form compression and potential swing high at 0.7120.

We can see the hourly chart that prices broke beneath a retracement line. Traders could consider fading into a move beneath the 0.7060/83 resistance zone and / or the broken retracement line, with a view to target the 0.7039/44 lows. Beneath here opens-up the support zone above 70c. However, keep in mind that AUD has not seen a monthly close beneath 70c in nearly 10 years, so expect this level to be defended with vigour.
DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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