Yesterday, we wrote about the strength of the USD/MXN on the possibility that the USMCA trade agreement deal may be reached. Today, House Democrats and Republicans of the United States have finally come together and agreed on a trade deal with Mexico and Canada, known as The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Both Republicans and Democrats are claiming this is a big win for American workers, with the ALF-CIO saying this is a vast improvement over NAFTA. The deal is expected to be voted on in US Congress before the upcoming recess, with both Mexico and Canada expecting to do the same.

One would expect both the Canadian Dollar to be bid after such an agreement was reached. However, USD/CAD is close to unchanged on the day after it pared gains, yesterday, from Friday’s strong US Non-Farm Payroll data and Canada’s weak payroll data.

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On a 240-minute timeframe, price has been trading in a sideways channel between 1.3020 and 1.3350 for the last six months. Price is currently trading near the midpoint of the channel near 1.3200. USD/CAD is likely to be rangebound until there is a catalyst to push price through either side of the channel. There are likely stops above and below the channel. Once one side is broken (including the false breakout through the top of the channel) there may be a stop run, which will push prices faster in the same direction of the breakout.

Many thought that a trade agreement among the three North American countries could be the catalyst to drive USD/CAD out of it long term triangle, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. The pair continues to trade closer and closer to the apex in a tight range.

If there is a stop run above or below the channel, things may get interesting. This is because there are likely longer term stops on either side of the weekly triangle formation. USD/CAD is so close to the apex, that a stop run on the short-term timeframe could lead to a stop-run on the weekly timeframe. The bottom trendline of the weekly triangle is roughly 1.3100 (as is the 200 Day Moving Average). The top trendline of the weekly triangle is roughly 1.3400.

Keep your radar on both of those price levels for USD/CAD.

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DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.


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